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American-Russian relations: from confrontation to alliance
Last updated: 3 September 2010

::Business

Javier Blas, Courtney Weaver, Simon Mundy

Russia announced a 12-month extension of its grain export ban on Thursday, raising fears about a return to the food shortages and riots of 2007-08 which spread through developing countries dependent on imports.

The announcement by Vladimir Putin came as the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation called an emergency meeting to discuss the wheat shortage, and riots in Mozambique left seven dead.


Kenneth Rogoff

As the US economy limps toward the second anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, anemic growth has left unemployment mired near 10%, with little prospect of significant improvement anytime soon. Little wonder that, with mid-term congressional elections coming in November, Americans are angrily asking why the government’s hyper-aggressive stimulus policies have not turned things around. What more, if anything, can be done?

The honest answer — but one that few voters want to hear — is that there is no magic bullet. It took more than a decade to dig today’s hole, and climbing out of it will take a while, too.


Alisa Vedenskaya

US experts prepared some unusual recommendations for President Dmitry Medvedev on the topic of innovation development. Certain initiatives sound fairly intriguing. The head of state, according to them, must substantiate the long-term nature of his plans to modernize the economy. At a minimum, this requires creating two high-ranking posts that report directly to the president ­ a chief technology officer and chief information officer. Americans are, in essence, suggesting to Medvedev how he could start forming his innovation team.

The American experts will present their initiatives at the World Political Forum in Yaroslavl. This year it will be held on September 9-10. In time for this event, they have prepared a multipage report on innovations in the world and in Russia.


Howard Schneider

The Obama administration is overhauling the decades-old rules for the export of sensitive military and other technology, jettisoning what industry groups criticize as an antiquated «Cold War» set of regulations for a more streamlined approach.

After a year-long review by officials at the State, Defense and Commerce departments, President Obama is scheduled to announce plans Tuesday to consolidate some enforcement activities in a single agency and develop a clearer list of products whose sale is restricted.


Roland Nash

Amongst both admirers and critics of Russia, there is a popular myth that it is in control of its economic destiny. It is not. For the last decade, and arguably longer, the Russian economy has been driven largely by two factors, both of which are outside of its control. For both the cost of natural resources and the cost of capital, Russia is essentially a price-taker. In this sense, the Opec oil cartel, the Chinese government and the US Federal Reserve have as much influence over Russia as the Kremlin or the oligarchs. For a country of Russia’s global economic and political significance, this is not a sustainable situation.


Mario Margiocco

Italians and other Europeans have serious problems addressing their own national debts, public and private, so it may seem immodest for a European to discuss America’s growing and grave debt problem. But the fiscal realities on both sides of the Atlantic nowadays are very similar, and only lingering trust in the promise of America keeps alive the expectation among some Europeans that some grand American coup de théâtre will resolve the country’s dire debt situation.

Of course, many Americans recognize the scale of the country’s debt burden. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and thus America’s highest ranking military officer, recently said, «The greatest danger to American security comes from the national debt.» Four Americans out of ten agree with him, whereas less than three in ten deem terrorism or Iran more dangerous.


OAO Sovcomflot, Russia’s largest shipper, and OAO Novatek aim to cut the time it takes to deliver oil and gas to China, sending their first cargo through the Arctic rather than the Suez Canal.

A 70,000 metric ton cargo of gas condensate left the port of Murmansk for Asia on Aug. 14, Mikhail Lozovoy, a spokesman for Novatek, Russia’s second-largest gas producer, said today by telephone from Moscow. He declined to give the specific destination.


Aleksandra Ponomareva

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov will be overseeing the new system for the interaction of business and the government. Now the businessman’s road to the government will be quite short. Russian and foreign businessmen will be able to complain about public officials on special sites. Their messages will be reviewed by a special new department of the Ministry of Economic Development. Major disputes will be handled personally by Igor Shuvalov. He will be assisted by public organizations — Business Russia and OPORA ROSSII. The officials believe this should stir local bureaucrats to action.

Whereas all of the anger at officials creating obstacles for business previously was vented in forums and blogs, now businessmen will have an official procedure for requesting assistance.


Natalya Hmelik

Late in June, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev came to the United States to present his pet project — an innovation center in Skolkovo already nicknamed «Russian Silicon Valley.» The project is expected to resemble a model Moscow suburb, almost utopian in nature, where local people will live in harmony and mutual trust with the police and state officials.

In California, Medvedev met with executives of Cisco Systems, Apple, and Twitter in an effort to woo foreign investment and brain power. He even received a present from Steve Jobs — an iPhone 4, officially the first in Russia.


Michael Schuman

Once again, jitters are spreading through the world of food. Wheat prices have surged a terrifying 50% since early June, the biggest jump in 30 years, according to HSBC. Droughts in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, which together account for 26% of world wheat exports, are leading to fears of tight supply and super-charging prices. Russia’s government made matters worse by slapping a ban on wheat exports from mid-August. The sudden price spike has a scary déjà-vu feeling, that the world will return to the nosebleed agricultural prices and food riots witnessed during 2007-08. That would not only punish the poor, but also drag on the already uninspiring recovery from the Great Recession.

Konstantin Bogdanov

The Second World War formally ended on September 2, 1945 with Japan’s surrender. There is a popular saying that a war is over when the last soldiers killed are buried. With WWII, however, things aren’t so simple.

The Second World War was a beast born of WWI, known in Europe as the Great War. Some alternative historians see them as two phases in the same war, separated by a fragile truce. This seems logical: For thirty years, the world tried to destroy itself in trenches and gas chambers, at logging sites and in slums blighted by misery and unemployment. It measured the shapes of skulls and class distinctions, and meticulously calculated the percentage of Jewish or Japanese blood in people destined for death camps or internment camps.

Vladimir Mukhin

The Commonwealth is entering a period of geopolitical struggle with NATO and the United States for control over the territory of the erstwhile Soviet Union and nearby countries. The Alliance mounted an energetic campaign to enlist the services of post- Soviet republics in performance of its own military-political missions in the region. Russia’s geopolitical interests are in danger. Outperformed at every turn, the international structures it established in the region (CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization or CSTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization) become virtual.

Exercise Peace Mission’2010 of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to be launched in Kazakhstan on September 10. There appear to be no particular reason to run the exercise save for the necessity to show that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is still there.

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