The deployment of American missile defense elements in Eastern Europe, and the Russian General Staff's statements about developing "fifth-generation weapons," have signalled a new level of confrontation between the Kremlin and the White House. Analysts are talking of a "second edition of the Cold War."
Putin's wish to restore our country's superpower status, based on a growing economy and the conflict between American interests and the interests of most other countries, is drawing a negative reaction from Washington. The situation is further complicated by the fact that America can be somewhat deaf and blind to the world's new realities. Military dominance, the status of the world's largest economy, and perhaps a messiah complex - all these factors make the American elite reluctant to accept the fact that the idea of promoting American values as universally binding values is no longer feasible.
The system of international relations established after World War II is experiencing a crisis: United Nations decisions don't work, and sometimes they aren't even taken seriously; national borders are being revised; and the very concept of international law is being interpreted arbitrarily by the leaders of one
particular state.
In this situation, non-governmental contacts between national elites become especially significant. Beyond non-governmental organizations or oligarch clubs like the Club of Rome, this focuses on the internationalization of big business. Transnational corporations lobby for their interests in all countries. They
sponsor a vast number of international forums, conferences, and congresses. Thus, they not only stive to maximize their own profits, but also create a new informational environment in which fresh geopolitical ideas are crystallized, economic doctrines are honed, and compromise solutions can be worked out.
This phenomenon may be described as the internationalization of lobbying. It is growing rapidly as global communications multiply and improve, with business community leaders meeting constantly. The influence of lobby groups on policy decisions in the world's largest countries is already perceptible. For example,
the American leadership condemned Putin's speech in Munich; but only a week later, conciliatory statements started seeping through from the White House and the Pentagon via "anonymous sources," stressing the need to respect Russia's interests and consult it on missile defense matters. Where might such initiatives come from, given that most members of both parties in Congress take an anti-
Russian stance?
Any political tension in international relations is bad for big business. For most TNCs, Russian and American alike, the word "stability" has become synonymous with "growth" and "profit." Politicians in both countries may utter all kinds of militant nonense, but those who know how to read their lips hear only one word: "stability." Lobbyists for the interests of Russian companies in America and American companies in Russia can help persuade their governments to accept some compromises that are very real, if not entirely public.
Where can big busines solve its strategic problems now, if the official diplomatic channels are becoming less and less effective? In familiar territory: international forums, congresses, conferences. Davos, London, Boston, Washington, and
other summits. The World Economic Forum in Davos this year was 100% successful in performing the undercover diplomacy function. London is next on the agenda.
And Washington will host the Russian Forum in mid-May. Perhaps the hallways of that forum will be the place where we can find solutions that enable our countries to reduce the level of reciprocal mistrust.
