It was Viktor Yushchenko’s most difficult decision since being swept into power by the pro-democracy Orange Revolution. Ukraine’s increasingly marginalised president faced the choice of either stretching his constitutional authority to the limit by dissolving a hostile governing coalition led by his long standing rival nemesis; or going into the history books as a political light weight who allowed his country to sink back into an oligarchic regime loyal to Moscow interests.
Eight months since he was effectively forced to accept Viktor Yanukovich as premier following the inconclusive outcome of the March 2006 election, Mr Yushchenko believes he has seen his country shifting away from everything millions of Ukrainian supporters stood for during massive protests against election fraud rigged in favour of his rival back in 2004.
While the president sought to steer Ukraine westwards – seeking membership in the European Union and Nato military alliance – the increasingly influential governing coalition of Mr Yanukovich has derailed these efforts.
Mr Yanukovich – who was defeated by Mr Yushchenko in the 2004 presidential contest – controls a coalition backed by big business and pro-Russian forces in parliament. He and allies have systematically muscled authority away from the president.
The battle between the country’s two rivals saw Ukraine – with its 47m people, booming economy and significant geopolitical position pitched between Russian and western spheres of influence – drift from one crisis to another.
Both sides called supporters back on the streets of Kiev this weekend in what were the largest protests since the Orange Revolution.
The escalating political paralysis has put severe strains on still fragile democratic and state institutions.
Ukraine ’s underpaid and corrupt court system, for example, is increasingly finding itself playing referee between power hungry political camps that are stretching the country’s hazy constitution beyond limits.
At the same time Mr Yushchenko’s room for manoeuvre has become increasingly smaller. In the end he was left with only one big card: dissolving parliament.
«The time for unproductive roundtables has passed,» Mr Yushchenko said referring to recent «unconstitutional» defections of opposition legislators to Mr Yanukovich’s majority. Mr Yushchenko fears his opponent could increase his power base in parliament from about 260 seats to a 300 constitutional majority – enough to override presidential vetoes. If it happens, Ukraine’s presidency will be reduced to a symbolic role.
«In seven months of this parliamentary coalition, we have witnessed an orchestrated attack on the constitutional order, continued fighting for authority and violations of voter will,» Mr Yushchenko said adding that corruption was creeping up again like a cancer.
«This political instability has created a serious threat to the national security, sovereignty and economic development of the country,» Mr Yushchenko added.
Dissolving parliament, however, is both controversial and risky. The move could yet be deemed unconstitutional , according to some legal experts. Opinion polls show that political allies of the president are not guaranteed a victory in a repeat vote. What is more, Mr Yanukovich’s coalition has threatened not to recognize repeat elections.
Mr Yanukovich’s party and that of opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, are expected to garner the highest support in a repeat vote. While currently allied with Mr Yushchenko, Ms Tymoshenko is viewed as a challenger for the presidential post
Mr Yanukovich’s allies have revived warnings that repeat elections will resurrect Ukraine’s east-west tensions in the country, possibly splitting the country into its Ukrainian and Russian-speaking constituent parts.
"The Financial Times"
