Despite the recent agreement between Condoleezza Rice and Sergei Lavrov to tone down U.S. and Russia’s negative rhetoric, the situation, far from improving, is getting even worse, with inflammatory statements coming from both sides almost daily, with increasing loudness and at the highest level. Both Washington and Moscow are getting more and more… shall we say, overwrought. Their routine statements that this is not a new Cold War do not sound convincing anymore.
Just look at the terminology used by both sides: «imperialism,» «diktat,» «Third Reich» vs. «revisionism,» «political murders,» «bullying neighbors,» etc. Now even Bush on the eve of his meeting with Putin talks about Russian «reforms that were once promised to empower citizens have been derailed, with troubling implications for democratic development."
And these are not just words. Missiles are now also added to the equation. So let us not pretend that everything is not as bad at it seems. For the last few years we have been hearing that the only thing that keeps U.S. – Russia relations from sliding into the Cold War is the good personal rapport between Bush and Putin. Now we see that this is no longer the case, and since both of them are on the way out anyway we should be prepared for the worse.
Is there anything that could or should be done to avoid this extremely dangerous development?
Not too much, but since Bush and Putin will meet two times in the next few weeks, we see no reason why we should not offer this naive three paragraph proposal which I doubt will be taken seriously by either side. However, at least I will have the chance to tell them a few years later: «I told you so!»
To Bush:
Stop this messianic policy of fast track democracy promotion around the world. It smacks too much of the disastrous Soviet policy of freeing the world from capitalist exploitation for the benefit of the whole mankind. History has provided conclusive proof for the adage that the road to hell is paved with good intentions: whoever proclaims a desire to impose his own ideas, even unquestionably attractive and noble ones, on the whole world, eventually brings more bloodshed and misery. Whether you like Putin’s domestic policy or not, he is supported by the overwhelming majority of the Russian people, so your public critical statements about him merely increase his popularity at home and stoke up Russian citizens’ anti-American feelings.
To Putin:
America is going to work on its Strategic Missile Defense no matter what. Realistically there is nothing Russia can do to stop it. Entering the arms race with U.S. will be disastrous for the Russian economy and even for its survival as a state. Threats to point Russian missiles at European targets only help Bush consolidate wavering allies. Instead, take Bush at his word and agree to cooperate with U.S. on a missile defense system. Of course it has to be a real partnership, not, as former Minister of Defense Igor Sergeev told me privately, America seeing this cooperation as taking charge of all the R&D and high-tech aspects and leaving the Russians with nothing but the hammers and nails to pack the boxes.
To Bush and Putin:
Granted, the task of bringing Russia and the United States closer together is not an easy one. Sometimes, though, even a hopeless undertaking may succeed if you try really hard. Who could have thought 20 years ago that Russia would see freedom? Then, U.S. and U.S.S.R. were allies once, during World War II, despite the fact that they were then sworn ideological enemies. That ideological standoff is not troubling the two sides any longer, and we have a common enemy that is even more formidable than Nazism was. If we want to beat it, Russia and America should stick together. More than that, we need China as a third party there, communist or not. Given the current situation in the world, we cannot afford the luxury of allied relations with countries founded exclusively on the ideal Western democracy model.
