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Plan for Kosovo independence will aim to entice a reluctant Russia

Plan for Kosovo independence will aim to entice a reluctant Russia
June 20, 2007

The US and European members of the UN Security Council were last night set to call for a clear path towards the independence of Kosovo, but aimed to overcome Russian objections by offering a four-month delay to allow a final round of talks.

In a draft resolution, likely to be formally introduced to the council today, they suggest a 120-day "sunrise" clause, giving all parties one last chance to reach agreement on the future of the breakaway Serbian province.

If those talks failed, and unless the council decides otherwise, a plan drawn up by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari would automatically come into effect, leading to "supervised" independence under European Union and Nato guidance.

Kosovo has been a UN ward since Nato drove Slobodan Milosevic's Serb forces from the majority ethnic-Albanian province in 1999.

Diplomats said Russia was still objecting to the proposals, and predict tough negotiations ahead. Some have cited a summit between US President George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, in the first week of July as a date by which they hope to reach agreement.

As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has a veto over the plan, and it is far from clear that the extra four months provision will be enough to win its support.

Were the new resolution to be agreed, it would in effect strip Russia of its veto power over the plan, as a further resolution would be needed to stop the process - and that might be vetoed by the US, France or the UK.

A Security Council diplomat said other measures intended to entice Russia included the draft text's lack of an "explicit endorsement" of the Ahtisaari plan, the creation of a special envoy to deal with internally displaced Serb minorities, and the assurance of a greater role for the Security Council in the future.

But other envoys doubt the wording would make any difference, saying the bottom line is that Kosovo would become independent.

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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