Relations between the United States and Russia are deteriorating. As in the past, however, the whole world would have benefited from US-Russian relations had they become constructive and had they started taking realities of the day into consideration. Both parties understand this to some extent, but hurt pride, arrogance, eagerness to appear strong coupled with the acute awareness of one's own vulnerability, and disappointment in results of the efforts of the past years have conspired to foment suspicions in the other's motives and undermine the spirit of partnership and cooperation.
Reversing trends is never easy, and outright difficult when both countries are rapidly approaching elections. Politicization of numerous issues interferes with the necessary decision-making process. While rushing toward elections, each country should try to understand the nature of the world as it is and the effect US-Russian relations have on it.
New global chaos
We have entered an era of great upheaval, and how long it will last is anybody's guess. The optimism the West experienced in the post-Soviet period when everyone thought that everything was finally over with the triumph of liberal democracy and free enterprise, was dispelled by the "global chaos" encountered at the millennium threshold. September 11 dispelled the international community's - or at least the Americans' - placidity.
Unchecked aspirations entertained by terrorist organizations notwithstanding, it is sovereign state that remain instrumental players in global politics. World powers by definition will retain their role as key shapers of the new framework of international relations.
What sovereign states will dominate global politics in the next decade remains an open question. The United States is bound to retain leadership even though the gap between it and the rest of the world will keep narrowing down. The strengthening of China is undeniable but Beijing will have to do something about the collision between its ever more open economy and stubbornly nontransparent political system. Disunity of Europe and reluctance of EU members to succumb their national interests to the common cause will prevent
the Old World from playing the role it actually deserves.
Russia's rise
As for Russia, its swift economic rise following the crisis of the 1990s stunned most observers. But if Russia wants the status of a world power retained and consolidated, it will have to address and successfully negotiate some serious problems - like the nation's state of health and reproductive capacities, and quality of education and infrastructure.
Vladimir Putin's chairmanship at the G8 summit last summer emphasized the fact that Russia was returning into the first echelon of international politics. Moscow becomes more and more successful in its efforts to have its opinion heard in vital international issues like the Iranian or relations between Syria and Lebanon and
between Israel and Palestine.
Proving its ability to help with permanent (or at least long-term) solutions to pressing international problems will be the next logical step for Russia.
However, Russia's effrontery conceals its weaknesses. Observers doubt that the Kremlin's aggressive policy (particularly with regard to the neighbors) answers long-term strategic interests of the country. Instead of becoming stimulators of a more positive interaction with Russia, economic boycotts of Georgia and (recently) Estonia convince these countries of the necessity to seek new trade partners. What does this policy tell us of Russia? It is a sign of
strength or weakness?
Foreign observers ask themselves another question as well. Swift and inordinately rough reaction to existence of small opposition groups and independent non-governmental organizations - what is this? Evidence of strength and arrogance born of it or, on the contrary, weakness and vulnerability? And how shall we interpret the rise of aggressive nationalism, apparently with the blessing of the Kremlin itself, a nationalism that threatens the very social fabric of multiethnic Russia? As an indication of strength or
weakness?
The United States as Russia's ally
Statements made by Russian state officials clearly indicate hat the eagerness to establish a monopolar world ascribed to the nited States presents the worst threat to Russian security. The eal dangers lie elsewhere.
Radical Islamic fundamentalism will probably start threatening Rssia from the south in the near future already. A threat fomented y the shifting balance of power in East Asia may manifest itself at ome later date. Add here transfrontier problems like terrorism, roliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organized crime. The nited States remains the only country capable of helping Russia
with these problems. Europe is in disarray and lacks the necessary trength. China, an inalienable element of the East Asian equation s it is, knows all too well that its ability to exert influence ith other matters Russia views as vital is restricted.
Subconsciously, Russian leaders understand that they should be using
American might to benefit Russia from the strategic standpoint even
when the United States actually promotes its own interests.
The United States needs a strong, competent, and confident Russia. Back in the 1990s, it was Russia's weakness that worried the United States more than its potential strengthening. The United States feared domestic destabilization in a country with one of the world's largest arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, a country bordering weaker states, a country possessing vast natural wealth
some foreign countries could aspire to seize. In short, Russia's rise is something the United States should hail.
A strong Russia is capable of coming in handy in establishment and maintenance of a new political-economic parity in East Asia. A strong Russia is critically important for construction of reliable security frameworks in Central Asia and the Caucasus. A strong Russia could even help the international community to stabilize the Middle East, restore Iraq and Afghanistan, and solve the Iranian
problem.
Also importantly, a strong Russia stands a better chance of being a constructive contributor to the efforts to cope with certain European problems the United States finds important.
However, the United States is so accustomed to dealing with a weak Russia that it finds itself unable again and again to swallow Moscow's confidence and aggressiveness. A lot of steps Russia has been taking in international affairs worry the international community, but there is a trend in American society to exaggerate these problems. Attempts to pool efforts and address the issues that
constitute the gap between us would certainly have been better.
Weakness of the West
It is not Russia's strength that generates and feeds the fear of it, it is weakness of the West and its lack of confidence. "Western public opinion either demonized Russia or worshipped it," American historian Martin Malia wrote several years ago. "It did not depend on the actual role played by Russia in European politics as much as it did on the fears and disappointments or hopes and aspirations fomented by domestic problems in European society itself." Nothing really changed. History is repeating itself.
Ironically, distrust in Russia is growing now when it really presents the least danger to the West and specifically to the United States in all of the post-war period. Russia is through with totalitarian ideologies aimed at devastation of the West; its army no longer stands poised to invade Europe; its economic growth
depends on constructive economic relations with Europe; its strategic arsenals (still capable of devastating the United States) are under better control than any time in the last fifteen years.
Chances of a strategic preemptive strike are near zero. From interests to values - steps toward each other:
To restore relations with Russia, we should concentrate on common interests and - also importantly - common values. Values shape our perception of interests and constitute an extremely important factor of trust necessary in dealing with any sensitive issue. What the American approach should be like?
* Respect the Russians' choice and preferences. It is their country, let them decide how it should be run. After all, it is the Russians themselves who are responsible for their own success or failure.
* Recognize Russia as an integral part of European civilization. A backward country in many respects due to the Soviet tyranny, it is nevertheless travelling the European way that stipulates expansion of freedoms and liberties.
* Whenever America is disturbed by Moscow's actions (and these concerns should be raised), it should also demonstrate understanding of the problems Russia is facing, including problems rooted in Russia's chaotic development during the 1990s. What we expect from our Russian colleagues:
* That they refrain from intepreting our appeal to common values as a cynical ploy aimed at promoting American geopolitical interests. Americans firmly believe (and their own history reinforces this belief) that democracy and free enterprise are the only path to a free and prosperous society.
* That whenever the Russians are disturbed by American moves, they show at the same time that they are aware of the difficulties the United States is facing.
* That they recognize that they themselves are responsible for the state of affairs in Russia, including the responsibility of accepting or ignoring advice from other countries.
