The United States is winning the war in Iraq with the objectives of President Bush’s military surge this year «largely being met», General David Petraeus told Congress yesterday.
Speaking ahead of a desperate White House attempt this week to secure extra time for the strategy before the patience of the American public runs out, the US military commander in Iraq declared that uneven but substantial progress had been made this year.
He said that Iraqi forces were now able to «shoulder more of the load» and al-Qaeda had been thrown «off-balance», particularly in Anbar province.
Citing US military figures that are disputed by some independent studies, he claimed that the overall level of violence and killing had fallen dramatically since the surge began. General Petraeus paid tribute to advice provided by British commanders on counter-insurgency tactics that were pioneered in Northern Ireland.
Such improvements meant that he was able to recommend a gradual withdrawal of 30,000 American troops by next summer, with about 2,000 Marines departing from Iraq this month followed by an Army brigade of around 4,000 soldiers in December. By July 2008, troop numbers should have fallen to the presurge level of around 130,000.
But General Petraeus gave warning that the precipitous pull-out favoured by many Democrats would allow al-Qaeda to regain ground, lead to the disintegration of Iraqi forces and the prospect of a regional conflagration possibly involving Iran. «A premature draw-down of our forces would likely have devastating consequences,» he said.
The US Ambassador to Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, gave Congress a «sober assessment» of the faltering political progress this year. «I cannot guarantee success in Iraq. I do believe that it is obtainable,» he said.
«This process will not be quick; it will be uneven, punctuated by setbacks as well as achievements, and it will require substantial US resolve and commitment. There will be no single moment at which we can claim victory; any turning point will likely only be recognised in retrospect.»
Last week the Government Accountability Office reported to Congress that Iraq had only fully achieved three of 18 political and military goals. The Government of Nouri al-Maliki has been severely criticised for failing to make more headway with reconciliation measures such as sharing oil revenues between regions.
But Mr Crocker said: «2006 was a bad year in Iraq. The country came close to unravelling politically, economically and in security terms. 2007 has brought some improvements. The changes to our strategy last January — the surge — have helped to change the dynamics in Iraq for the better.»
He admitted that «enormous challenges remain», including difficulties caused by Iran, which was accused by General Petraeus of fighting a «proxy war» through Shia militias. But, echoing the general, the ambassador gave warning that «abandoning or just drastically curtailing our efforts» would probably lead to chaos or civil war with «massive human suffering well beyond what has already occurred».
The testimony to the House of Representatives yesterday, which was frequently interrupted by protesters, represented a pivotal moment for both Mr Bush and Mr al-Maliki.
The President, who is expected to address the nation about the war this week, has been working to prevent wholesale Republican defections in support of Democratic Bills blocking military funding or setting withdrawal timetables this autumn.
Mr al-Maliki yesterday acknowledged that his security forces were not yet ready to take over responsibility from the US military. «There have been tangible improvements in security in Baghdad and the provinces but it is not enough,» he said. «We still need more efforts and time.»
Opinion polls yesterday suggested that a majority of US voters favoured setting a timetable for a 2008 withdrawal while retaining a military presence to train Iraqi security forces and fight terrorists. But the Democrats, who control both Houses of Congress, are under intense pressure to end the war. Tom Lantos, the chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee, told General Petraeus and Mr Crocker: «It is time to go and to go now.»
He later dismissed the planned pull-outs as a «token withdrawal» and highlighted reported splits between General Petraeus and Admiral William Fallon, the US commander of the Middle East region, who is said to want a bigger reduction in troop numbers.
Today, the focus switches to the Senate, where the general and the ambassador will present their report on the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the US. Presidential candidates including Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain and Joe Biden are likely to restate their own positions on a war that will provide the backdrop to the 2008 election.
Last night, neither No 10 nor the Foreign Office would comment on the reports to Congress. For the Conservatives, William Hague, said it was clear that the surge had had «mixed results». The Tories believed that troops should stay in Iraq «only as long as they are needed», he added.
The Times
