UBS analysts say that the new Cabinet is the most pro-reform government Russia has had for the past five years, and the ministerial appointments indicate considered, more vigorous, and competent policy-making. Goldman Sachs economist Rory MacFarquhar says that the most important development is Alexei Kudrin's promotion to deputy prime minister: Kudrin has been the guarantor of conservative financial policy for the past seven years.
Alfa Bank strategists say that the policy course of using Stabilization Fund resources effectively will be continued. Chris Weafer from UralSib agrees that Kudrin won't permit any attempts to solve current problems by methods that pose a threat to the strict fiscal regime.
Weafer goes on to say that Elvira Nabiullina is regarded as an experienced and reliable specialist, so there won't be any changes in the Economic Development Ministry's policies after Herman Gref's departure.
Troika Dialog analyst Andrei Kuznetsov maintains that Tatiana Golikova and Dmitri Kozak will run their ministries better than their predecessors did. Deutsche Bank economist Yaroslav Lisovolik says there's no need to worry about budget funding for the social
sphere in the lead-up to elections. Weafer says that Kozak's return to the government will put the reformers in a stronger position; with Kozak as minister, the Regional Development Ministry will become the most influential ministry in the government's economic bloc.
Analysts have different views on how long this Cabinet will last. Alfa Bank strategists say that Putin has decided to maintain the status quo ahead of the elections. Lisovolik says that the new Cabinet will see Russia through the elections and the successor's first years in power. Weafer says: "Putin is creating a team that will have to carry out the economic tasks he has set for the next presidential term." Experts maintain that the market ought to be glad of these changes.
IMF Executive Director Rodrigo de Rato commented that some well-informed people have been appointed to the government's economic bloc.
Vedomosti
