The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is still a divorce mechanism, apparently. President Vladimir Putin has managed to strengthen the Russian Federation, but he hasn't been able to establish centripetal trends across the former Soviet Union. The latest CIS heads of state summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, is evidence of that.

At the economic level, much has changed for the better. In previous years, post-Soviet republics were impoverished and needed external aid. The economies of these countries were ineffective. They sought assistance from the European Union, from Turkey, from Iran. Now it's clear that none of the post-Soviet republics stand a chance of joining the European Union while their present generation of leaders remains in power. Meanwhile, their economies are growing - with a few exceptions. It would seem that CIS countries might unite into an organization along the lines of EU-East, or the East European Union. Russia is proposing this idea within the CIS. Moscow would like to see the former Soviet republics integrated into a great modernization project headed by Russia. But the CIS countries are quarreling or even fighting with Russia over gas price increases. óonsequently, even Belarus is seeking alternative sources in Central Asia and the  West.    

At the political level, all the CIS countries are very much alike. They share the same political space, which bears no resemblance to Western democracy as yet. So they can't draw closer to the European Union. In order to remain in power, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko changed his country's political system to a presidential republic. President Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko are preparing to do the same in Ukraine. In the Central Asian states, presidents have expanded their powers almost to infinity. And in Russia, to all appearances, the political system will be defined by Putin.

But the West hasn't lost its strategic interest in the former Soviet Union. The Caspian region holds vast energy resources - the chief alternative to Persian Gulf oil. So the doors to NATO and the West's energy systems will be opened for transit countries like Ukraine and Georgia. In the meantime, China isn't standing aside either: it has its own appetites for the oil and gas reserves of CIS countries.

This is still the big question: will the former Soviet republics find a new identity? Will the CIS countries ever be interested in uniting to form an economic alliance, an energy alliance, or a defense alliance? These prospects seem highly uncertain at present. Time will tell.