The bill on suspending Russia's compliance with the
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty is supposed to be passed
by the Duma today. According to President Vladimir Putin's idea,
Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty should be a powerful
response to America's plans for deploying missile defense elements
in Europe. Two days before the Duma vote, the US State Department
announced that it's prepared to make some concessions in order to
prevent the Kremlin from tearing up the CFE Treaty. However, it's
almost impossible for the USA to comply with Moscow's demands in
relation to the CFE Treaty. Washington could make some concessions
to the Kremlin in another area: changing its stance on the upcoming
Duma election in Russia and recognizing it as democratic.
      There is every chance that the Duma will vote unanimously to
pass the presidential bill on Russia's withdrawal from the CFE
Treaty. Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov said yesterday that all Duma
factions intend to support the CFE Treaty moratorium. In effect,
this vote in the Duma won't have any legal consequences, since the
CFE Treaty's wording on withdrawal procedures is somewhat vague.
However, international law specialists agree that Moscow can
withdraw from the CFE Treaty if it gives its partners 150 days'
notice. Those 150 days (since President Putin's decree was issued)
expire in a month's time, on December 12, so the Duma's vote on the
CFE Treaty bill will be Russia's final warning to the West - and a
reminder that Moscow isn't joking.
      The US government's Commission on Security and Cooperation in
Europe held hearings in Washington on Monday, November 5; David
Kramer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and
Eurasian Affairs, gave a fairly detailed account of the concessions
which the United States might be prepared to make. "If Russia is
prepared to commit to move on its remaining Istanbul commitments,
some NATO Allies are open to beginning the ratification process
while Russia is still in the process of completing them," said
Kramer. In effect, this means that some NATO countries might start
ratifying the CFE Treaty if Russia promises once again to withdraw
its troops from Pridnestrovie after all. At the same time, according
to a State Department source, the United States won't insist on
Russian troops being withdrawn from Abkhazia just yet; they can stay
there as part of an OSCE peacekeeping contingent - but Russia will
have to withdraw its weapons and peacekeepers from Pridnestrovie.
      Kramer made an important proviso when he noted that the US
Administration "is not seeking to prejudge either the calendar for
Senate action on CFE, or the outcome... We would, however, consult
with the Senate about ratification if we and Russia are able to
reach a deal."
      This reminder that the final decision on ratification is up to
the US Senate makes the situation thoroughly clear. This is exactly
how Russia and the USA have been negotiating for years on repealing
the Jackson-Vanik amendment. President Bush regularly promises
President Putin that he will make every effort to get the amendment
repealed - but everything comes down to the Senate's reluctance.
Given the substantial differences between Congress and the White
House at present, the promise to ratify the CFE Treaty is certainly
a bluff: the US Administration would never be able to ensure the
necessary voting outcome in the Senate.
      European countries haven't shown any sign of being ready to
ratify the CFE Treaty; for example, the recent statement from the
foreign affairs ministers of Germany and France doesn't even mention
it. Moreover, Russia is demanding that the Baltic states should sign
the CFE Treaty - but those countries have made their position clear
already. They are prepared to sign - but only after the CFE Treaty
has been ratified by all current signatories and opened to new
members. Thus, the greatest concession offered by the United States
is self-evidently unfeasible.
      The increased activity by American diplomats in the lead-up to
December 12 is certainly aimed at persuading the Kremlin not to
hurry in withdrawing from the CFE Treaty. Today's vote in the Duma
will be an extra trump card for Vladimir Putin, of course, but it
won't mean that he's obliged to withdraw from the CFE Treaty. Such a
delay is important for the Bush Administration in an election year,
in order to avoid the usual accusations of "losing Russia" and
failing to prevent the destruction of the CFE Treaty. If the White
House can manage to delay the CFE Treaty's collapse, it could
subsequently blame everything on the Democrat-controlled Congress.
      Then again, American diplomats aren't really concealing that
their increased activity levels are also due to the approach of
another date: December 10. That is the deadline for the UN Security
Council's decision on Kosovo's final status. Russia is still the
major obstacle to passing a resolution declaring the territory's
independence. So the US State Department is prepared to make every
effort to avoid Moscow's veto.
      Russia's diplomats and officials surely realize how unviable
Washington's promises are - but the "deal" negotiations are still
going ahead. The salient point here is that the dates of December 10
and 12, so important for the USA, are less important for Russia in
comparison with another date: December 2. That is when the Duma
election will be held in Russia, and it is the primary focus of
interest for the Kremlin at present.
      According to David Kramer, the "deal" negotiations will
continue in the immediate future, and the final decision will be
made before December 12. Such a result could only be achieved if the
West's stance on Russia's December 2 election is placed on the
bargaining table.
      President George W. Bush is due to meet with German Chancellor
Angela Merkel this weekend. Sources say that their main topics of
discussion will be Kosovo, Iran, missile defense, the CFE Treaty,
and relations with Russia. A day earlier, Bush will meet with French
President Nicolas Sarkozy. Clearly, a real "deal" with Russia -
covering Kosovo, the CFE Treaty, and the Duma election - cannot go
ahead without Merkel and Sarkozy.