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Putin is not choosing the safest way to keep himself in power

Putin is not choosing the safest way to keep himself in power
November 12, 2007
Alexander KONOVALOV, President, Institut of strategic assessement&analysis

I must admit that this congress turned out well for the United Russians. Our public has not seen anything more disgusting for a long time now. In terms of style, theater, and esthetics, it was an exact copy of a CPSU congress in the period of the most profound stagnation. The president, who has always distanced himself from party affairs, agreed to head United Russia's federal list. Now everyone is arguing about why he needed to do that and believes that this party will be strong support for the president, no matter how his future political career takes shape. United Russia, however, is not a political party, but a specific kind of power structure whose members are linked by nothing but a desire to keep themselves in power. And it needs President Putin as a brand name to help accomplish specifically this task. If the Russian bureaucracy draws the conclusion that some other leader handles this task better, Vladimir Vladimirovich will immediately sense the yawning void for himself. United Russia will scatter in search of a better "master" and will disappear just as Our Home Is Russia and a number of parties like it disappeared.

One gets the impression that before the United Russia congress, Putin's plans began to change; and decisions are being made in terrible haste, "on the run," as people say. One gets the feeling that the president suddenly realized (or someone explained to him) that power in Russia cannot be given away for half a year or even for half an hour. You will certainly not get it back. There are feverish searches underway for a way out of the trap in which both the president himself and his closest associates have found themselves. If such things exist, of course. In any case, from the outside one gets the impression that the president no longer trusts anybody. That is why Vladimir Putin's announcement at the United Russia congress that in certain conditions he might take the post of prime minister after leaving the office of president seems so hasty and not well thought-out. It is becoming clear that even during the parliamentary elections, Putin plans to obtain the mandate of the undisputed national leader. He may agree to take the post of prime minister or he may not, and the second option is still the most likely.

How would all this be organizationally formalized? Apparently, two offices would appear in the Kremlin. The plaque "President of the Russian Federation" would be hung in one, while "National Leader of the Russian Federation" would be hung in the other. That is absurd! An official can function in a system of coordinates that is understandable to him. Who should be given the highest honors and which office should one try to get into to resolve one's problems? All these and a multitude of other questions must have precise
and clear answers. Otherwise some of the officials would begin running to one office, and some -- to the other, and some would actually begin to recreate the customary system with the understandable hierarchy of relations.

If Putin all the same decides to become a strong prime minister under a nominal, weak president, theoretically such a system would provide him with some temporary advantages. The world is familiar with examples of such systems. But given the current Constitution, the consciousness of the present officials might actually become muddled from such an arrangement. And such a situation could end in nothing but a grandiose
internal argument. It is very doubtful that Russia has sufficient resources and reserves of political stability to survive such an experiment.

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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