United Russia, the ideology-free party whose election list was headed by Vladimir Putin, was always going to win. Thanks to the championship of the president, it will now have a two-thirds majority in the state Duma. Only the rump of the once-mighty Communist party will provide an opposition.
The question is whether the outcome will be a blessing for Mr Putin, and for Russia, or a curse. That depends on how the president chooses to play the hand he has won. So far he has proved a remarkable tactician, but it is unclear that he has a strategy.
The first unknown is whether Mr Putin really wants to remain as a power in the system, either as prime minister, or as some sort of éminence grise behind the throne of the next president, or whether he actually wants to bow out gracefully.
Most observers seem to think that he wants to carry on pulling the strings, or even to engineer a return to the presidency after a suitable delay (the constitution forbids more than two consecutive terms). Yet there are a number of well-informed analysts who remain convinced that he wants to quit, and has been persuaded to stay only to prevent an outbreak of vicious faction-fighting in the Kremlin.
If that is the case, his success may well prove a personal curse. Already there are signs of faction-fighting. The recent arrest of Sergei Storchak, the deputy finance minister, on charges of embezzlement, is seen as a blow against the economic liberals in the government. They are represented by Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy prime minister and chairman of Gazprom, among potential contenders for the succession.
Sergei Ivanov, also a deputy prime minister and former defence minister, is another front-runner. A former member of the elite external directorate of the KGB, he is personally close to Mr Putin, but he does not see eye-to-eye with Igor Sechin, deputy head of the presidential administration in the Kremlin, and leader of another powerful faction of siloviki – present and past security people.
Mr Sechin’s problem is that he does not have a strong candidate for the presidency, so he is one of those most keen on persuading Mr Putin to remain the real power in the land. He might well favour an unthreatening placeman for president – such as Viktor Zubkov, the recently installed prime minister – who might step down to allow Mr Putin to return to the Kremlin.
All such scenarios remain possible after the election result. It has solved nothing. But a decision day is not that far off: United Russia is planning to choose its presidential candidate by December 17. The final day for names to be submitted is December 23.
Even then, it may not be clear what role Mr Putin sees for himself. He has hinted he might become prime minister. With a two-thirds majority in the Duma, he could even ensure that powers are transferred from the presidency to parliament, and tie the hands of his successor.
Christopher Granville, managing editor of Trusted Sources and a long-time Russia watcher, believes the election result gives Mr Putin “a platform to do the right thing”. But he must resist the temptation of becoming prime minister, which would lead to “long-term institutional deadlock”.
Like many others, Mr Granville says Russia has never functioned well with “two tsars”. The real tsar is always (in popular eyes) in the Kremlin. He argues that Mr Putin should ensure his successor is a powerful and competent president, backed by a solid majority in parliament. His role should be to ensure a stable transition, and then bow out gracefully.
That may be too much to expect. Mr Putin has shown he can deliver seats in the Duma for a tame party. Keeping the peace between the factions in the Kremlin is a far more difficult challenge.
