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Dmitri Medvedev to reinforce the liberal faction in the Kremlin?

Dmitri Medvedev to reinforce the liberal faction in the Kremlin?
December 12, 2007
Alexander KONOVALOV, President, Institut of strategic assessement&analysis

The innocent may believe that the latest developments reinforce the liberal faction in the Kremlin but... But I don't know anyone in the Kremlin who obeys Medvedev. Sure, Sergei Ivanov was not promoted to successor because he demonstrated his aspirations in too open a manner. Medvedev proved smarter than that. Come to think of it, Putin is recommending a figurehead to us. Medvedev has never managed anything. He is just an official of the presidential administration.

How do you expect him to govern the state? If you ask me, it's precisely that. He is not expected to govern. The idea is to have him refrain from interfering. So the question is what kind of political system they are setting up in Russia. The answer remains obscure, and Medvedev's nomination doesn't clarify matters. Let's wait for United Russia's Óongress. If Putin decides to join the party and become its leader, it would certainly mean a transition from presidents and prime ministers to Soviet-style general secretaries. It will inevitably establish two centers of power, and this kind of duality in Russia always results in bloodshed. Along with everything else, I cannot wait to know the results of Putin's visit to Minsk. What if he considers the post of the head of the Union? I'd have said he does but for Alexander Lukashenko... I'd like to point out, however, that history of Russia knows the episodes when two power factions join combat, understand that a bloodshed is inevitable, and choose a compromise figure for the time being. That was how Leonid Brezhnev was promoted once. Two factions in the Politburo, at each other's throats, decided to promote Brezhnev to earn themselves a respite and regroup. They did.
Brezhnev outlasted them all.

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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