The greatest secret in Russian politics in recent years has finally been resolved: the name of the man who is the most likely future president of the country has been revealed. It is Dmitriy Medvedev. It would appear that Putin has changed his trademark style -- all of his earlier personnel decisions were completely unpredictable. This time he sounded the name of a man who already a year ago all commentators were predicting would be the successor. That is true. But since spring of last year Sergey Ivanov was mentioned more frequently in this capacity, and since fall it has been Viktor Zubkov. Therefore there is still an element of surprise. Today, looking back, it is obvious that a year ago Putin deliberately moved Medvedev into the background in order not to make him a target for political enemies too soon. After all, sworn enemies and friends are capable of chewing up any candidate for Olympus. And so Medvedev's name was safely camouflaged in a list of other potential successors.
The logic of Putin's choice is quite understandable. Dmitriy Medvedev is experienced, intelligent, loyal, and young. He has proven his ability to meet large federal challenges both in the position of head of the president's administration and as overseer of the national projects in the fields of education, public health, housing construction, agriculture, and demography. Medvedev has grown quickly as a politician; he is able to grasp and solve problems on the run (I am prepared to testify to this from some experience with personal dealings). His youth -- he is 42 -- makes him a long-term figure capable of ensuring succession and rotation of power in the foreseeable future.
Medvedev has a long history of the closest cooperation with Putin who, unquestionably, will remain one of the leading players in Russia politics under the next head of state (judging by Medvedev's latest statements, in the capacity of prime minister). Dmitriy Anatolyevich is electable. Even before this he had one of the highest popularity ratings in the country and starting the day before yesterday he began a steady rise that will ensure a surge of public attention and heightened media interest. It will be hard for the opposition find anything to juxtapose; Medvedev has almost no negatives in public perception. It is impossible to expect that any influential political forces will rise up against him. For the groups in and around the Kremlin it is too late to take any steps against a man who was nominated by the party of the majority which just won the election and is supported by a tremendously popular president.
The regional authorities have cooperated actively with Medvedev recently on the national projects and have no grounds to be unhappy with his candidacy. And the business community is simply happy about his nomination: the stock market instantly hit a historic high. I will be surprised if he gets fewer votes -- even in the first round -- than United Russia got in the recent Duma elections. Medvedev's past experience can suggest a great
deal in relation to the content of his election campaign and his future policies in the office of president. I think that during the campaign he will not reject a further showing of achievements in the social sphere where the aggregate indicator showed an improvement in demographic indicators for this first time in 40 years. As an attorney by profession Medvedev is strong in state and the law issues and will try to make use of this advantage.
To be successful in the election he will also have to give greater attention to such aspects of his program as foreign policy, the defense complex, and the security structures, where he is not considered a specialist (although as a member of the RF Security Council he is one). I would not expect any abrupt changes in course from a Medvedev presidency. He is a team man and will preserve the succession. He has no reason to abandon the Putin Plan, either during the election campaign or later. People expect a continuation of the policies of the incumbent president, which are bringing results. I think that in the near future the Russian system of government will become more institutionalized and have more real centers of influence that create a system of checks and balances. The government proper, which may be headed by Vladimir Putin, is becoming a mighty center of power. And the results of the recent parliamentary elections clearly bolstered United Russia and its Duma faction, which creates conditions for a growth in the influence of the legislative branch of government.
The nomination of Medvedev puts the Western politicians and mass media in a very interesting position. For the last few months (if not years) they have portrayed Russia in increasingly dark colors as an increasingly bloody dictatorship under the growing control of the sinister KGB and following an increasingly treacherous anti-Western policy. And suddenly here is Medvedev with his reputation as liberal, a man who has no connection with the special services and has not been observed displaying any anti-Western attitudes. Their integrated picture of the world (which, it is true, always resembled Alice's Wonderland more than Russian reality) is breaking up. Probably they will now have to say that Medvedev is not the real thing, that he is cover for the dictatorship and other horrors, or else they cannot make sense of things. Or they could agree that all their current notions of Russia are false. But I do not believe in such a self-critical posture in my foreign colleagues.
On Monday the United Russia congress will officially nominate Dmitriy Medvedev as its
presidential candidate. I think that after this it will be impossible to stop him, no matter how much his sworn enemies and friends may want to.
