No one can accuse Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President, of lacking a sense of drama. Faced with mass street protests in Tbilisi two months ago, he overreacted disastrously. Riot police were authorised to use teargas, water cannon and rubber bullets. More than 350 demonstrators were taken to hospital. Indignation hardened to fury in the ranks of the democratic Opposition, and creeping disillusion turned to dismay in the Western embassies whose backing helped to ensure the success of the Rose Revolution in 2003.
Mr Saakashvili appeared to have transformed himself from leader to suppressor of popular protest in barely four years. He then gambled everything on a snap presidential election that he appears to have won narrowly. Russia has joined the losing candidates to denounce the weekend poll as rigged, but, as the spokesman for a large team of foreign observers noted, the Russians were not there. In their absence, the election has won qualified international approval, and Mr Saakashvili another five years as leader of the West's only reliable ally in the Caucasus.
His official share of the vote was 51.8 per cent. In principle this amounts to a popular mandate. In practice the more significant figure is 96 per cent - his approval rating when swept to power. The Harvard-educated poster boy for democratic renewal on the post-Soviet fringe has lost nearly half his supporters in one term in office. This is partly an inevitable result of moving from the euphoria of the barricades to anti-climactic government. But there is also a widespread perception, especially in Tbilisi, that since ousting Eduard Shevardnadze he has paid only lip service to the democratic process. His most vital task now is to prove these critics wrong and bequeath a true democracy to his successor.
The international verdict on Georgia's de facto referendum has been less glowing in the smallprint than the headlines. The US congressman leading the largest observers' delegation called it, extravagantly, “a triumphant step”. But his report also noted an “inequitable campaign environment”, which historians may consider an understatement for a campaign that started with a 15-day state of emergency and Georgia's two main non-state TV stations being taken off the air. They were allowed to resume broadcasting, but Mr Saakashvili dominated election coverage thereafter. On Sunday night, with half the country's precincts reporting, he appeared on course to win less than half the vote and face a second-round run-off next month. An hour later he was declared the outright winner.
So far, few claims of fraud have been proven. The EU is therefore right to endorse the official result. But Mr Saakashvili must heed calls for prompt investigations of alleged irregularities. He must also show patience when the Opposition gathers in Tbilisi today for protests intended to force a run-off, and he must ensure that parliamentary elections scheduled for April are nothing less than a model of transparency. At 40, he is still young. With a microphone, he is still charismatic. But power has stripped him of his aura of idealism and integrity. Mr Saakashvili cannot take Western endorsement of his democratic credentials for granted. His greatest legacy would be a durable democratic pluralism in his homeland, but Georgia has nothing like it yet.
"The Times"
