How the international landscape has been transformed in 12 months! December of 2006 was gloomy. After the murder of Aleksandr Litvinenko in London, all of the Western mass media wrote about the return of the specter of the all-powerful KGB, and frightened readers with a "Cold War" without any rules.
A year later, can one think of a brighter symbol of the change in atmosphere, than the German rock group, "The Scorpions," which has been mentioned several times in recent days, and which recently concluded its Kremlin concert to celebrate the 90's anniversary of the VChK (All-Russian Extraordinary Commission) - OGPU (Unified State Political Department) - NKVD (People's Commissariat on Internal Affairs) - MGB (Ministry of State Security) - KGB (Committee for State Security) - FSB (Federal Security Service) with four of their hits?
The aging rockers, who at one time sang to Mikhail Gorbachev as a sign of gratitude for tearing down the iron curtain, whistled off-key to the refrain of "Winds of Change," and strained to simulate drive. They were received by a silent auditorium, filled with former fellow associates of Litvinenko and the newly elected State Duma Deputy, Andrey Lugovoy. It was obvious that the "Scorpions" were bored. But European pragmatism gained the upper hand--it was nothing personal, just business. The honorarium evidently outweighed the specifics of the audience. How, after all, are rock legends any worse that the great politician of our time, Gerhardt Schroeder...What has changed in a year in relations between Russia and the West? The alarm evoked by the change in style of Moscow's behavior has died down. We are all drinking in the effect that Vladimir Putin had on the arrogant imperialists in Munich. Meanwhile, after a rather brief shock, a consensus is being formed among the aforementioned imperialists. It is called the need for a realistic view.
Realism is a rejection of illusions to the effect that Russia can become the way the West wants it to be. Hopes for democratization according to the model of Eastern Europe have been recognized as being untenable. Expectations for a lengthy restoration of the country's geopolitical positions have been negated by the rapid change in the raw material market conditions. The supposition that Moscow's opinion may be more or less politely ignored has ceased working as the Kremlin changed its self-sentiment.
New trends caress the ear of the Russian authorities. One after another, Western analysts are coming to the conclusion that Russia must be perceived as it is. That they must stop teaching it democracy. That it is practically impossible to try to influence domestic processes. That arrogant indifference is already not enough, but that the words and actions of Moscow demand a substantial reaction.
However, the realism that is dear to our hearts provides for a much harsher appraisal of the potential and capacities of the object of consideration. In other words, today Russia's foreign partners are studying what really stands behind the confident rhetoric and stepped up policy of Moscow. Are they bolstered by a strong home front, or are they a bluff? Does Russia really intend to insist on its own and to create problems for other countries, or is it geared toward making deals? Is the country capable of filling the foreign political breach with real content, which requires highly professional diplomacy, a well-planned foreign economic strategy, precise calculation and an effective state apparatus?
Finally, what is there more of in the Kremlin's position: Real decisiveness to change something on the international arena, or the desire to affirm itself after the geopolitical collapse at the end of the last century? The search for answers to these questions comprises the essence of the current stage of Moscow's relations with the foreign world. Under the curtain of the presidency, Vladimir Putin broke through the wall of indifference, with which leading world powers viewed Russia in recent years, considering it, on the whole, a factor of little significance. Moscow was heard, but now they are considering whether it is worth really taking it seriously. Because, despite the triumphant announcements about growth of the GDP (gross domestic product), according to the summary indicators of might (human, infrastructure-related and technological capital), the country still cannot be compared with the leaders of development.
As yet, Russia has not achieved any real victories--geopolitical and economic dividends. Of course, we cannot demand everything all at once. But the haughty sentiments, which have become popular, at least in our public sphere, make us wary. And the verdict that the West will issue, having weighed the peculiarities of the new Russia, is not yet obvious. The second aspect of relations, which became apparent by the end of 2007, is the pragmatic desire to extract maximal benefit from Russian development. Complaints about the absence of democracy in Russia and the presence of a horrible investment climate have become commonplace. Ineffectiveness, unpredictability and corruptness of our country's state machine have become the talk of the town. Nevertheless, many continue to seek paths to the Russian market, where the risk is great, but the opportunities are broader.
The relations that have been formed between Moscow and Paris after the victory of Nicolas Sarkozy may be considered the model for a new type of Russian-Western relations. His appearance in the Yelisey Palace was accompanied by moans and groans to the effect that, with the departure of Jacques Chirac, the last pro-Russian bastion had collapsed. Meanwhile, it seems that Vladimir Putin has never had such close mutual understanding with anyone, as he has with the French leader. And it is entirely unimportant that Sarkozy demonstratively maintains friendly relations with Bush and
Saakashvili, and speaks out about Russia with varying degrees of enmity. However, mentally, the two presidents are very close. Both have extremely specific thinking, oriented toward business interests. Both are no strangers to the traditional idea of the greatness of their countries, for the sake of which one can break the established standards of behavior. Both are hyperactive and geared toward outward manifestation of success. Both are not burdened with excess moral limitations.
It is with such a Europe that the Kremlin is prepared to have dealings, even if it does not have any personal sympathies toward the politicians that embody it, such as the sentiments that firmly tied the President of Russia and the former Chancellor of Germany together. While the part of the German elite represented by Schroeder demonstrates a simply frank liquidity and ignores niceties, the French establishment is a serious partner, with whom one must keep a keen ear, but with whom it is possible to firmly bargain and come to mutually advantageous agreement. There are also promising negotiating partners in other European countries as well.
We should note that the question of human rights and democracy has faded away into the deep periphery of the Russian-European discussion. There is a different dilemma that is the subject of discussion: How to find a balance between the benefits from economic cooperation and security--primarily energy security, but also general security. As for democracy, one other symbol of the year may be considered the congratulatory greeting, which Nicolas Sarkozy addressed to Vladimir Putin after the parliamentary elections in Russia. According to protocol, he certainly was not obligated to do this--after all, they were not electing the president. It is simply that he liked very much how well everything went in Russia...
The results-2007 are an intermediate landmark on the path toward Moscow's new status in the world. Russia has reached the next level, but, first of all, as yet there are no guarantees that it will remain there. And secondly, it still does not itself know what to do with this now. In 1991, the Scorpions became the last foreign guests, who were received and heard by Mikhail Gorbachev in the rank of president. A week later, there was no more Soviet Union. Russia of the era of sovereign democracy is clearly not superstitious--any whim for our money...
