The official nomination of Dmitri Medvedev as a presidential candidate at the United Russia party's congress, and Vladimir Putin's consent to head the future government, stated at the same congress, have made this tandem's success in the presidential election practically predetermined. Although the Communist Party and the LDPR will have their leaders in the race - in contrast to 2004, when they fielded stand-ins - their candidates (Gennadi Zyuganov and Vladimir Zhirinovsky) - can't get more than 15% of the vote each. Even assuming the impossible does happen - Mikhail Kasyanov, Boris Nemtsov, and Democratic Party of Russia leader Andrei Bogdanov all manage to collect two million signatures - they couldn't produce any substantial change in the election configuration; so far, none of them have support ratings over 2%. There is absolutely no sign of any factor that might prevent Medvedev's victory in the first round of voting.
There are more questions about the configuration of the authorities after the election. How will powers be distributed between Medvedev and Putin? Which of them will be in charge? Might we have to rewrite our laws and the Constitution in order to give the prime minister more powers? Is Putin risking his political future by accepting a formally secondary role and making himself accountable for all socio-economic policy? I believe that the incumbent has provided comprehensive answers to these questions and discussed them thoroughly with the next president.
Our Constitution does not allow for a "technical presidency"; the head of state has very extensive powers. This fact alone indicates that Medvedev will be a strong president. Moreover, Medvedev himself is a strong-willed politician and a very experienced administrator. But Putin will be a strong prime minister, if only because he's Putin; he is set to remain the most popular person in Russia for a long time to come. So we'll have a system of governance with two important decision-making centers. At least two - because United Russia, which has just collected 64% of the vote (not 37%, as in 2003), is becoming a far more influential center of power. All this represents obvious progress from the standpoint of those who respect and value the separation of powers principle.
In consenting to become prime minister, Putin was well aware of what he's in for: he served as prime minister for several months in 1999. Many commentators have underestimated the powers which the Constitution grants to the government and the prime minister. According to the Constitution, the prime minister is head of the executive branch, and the government is empowered to determine the main directions of domestic and foreign policy. A great deal depends on the figure of the prime minister; heavyweight politicians holding this office can potentially eclipse the president. Think back to Yevgeny Primakov - or Putin at the very end of Boris Yeltsin's period in office, when it was obvious to everyone that the prime minister was actually running the country. Presumably, the 2008 version of Prime Minister Putin will be stronger than the 1999 version. No changes are required to the laws or the Constitution for Putin to remain a key player in Russian politics. But Medvedev - youthful and energetic, with a fresh mandate - will be far stronger than Yeltsin was in 1999.
Actually, a construct with a powerful prime minister seems preferable to me. One of the chief weaknesses in Russia's constitutional design is that power is separated from accountability: the president has the most powers, but the government is held accountable for policy results. From this standpoint, I think the American model, for example, is more successful: the head of state is also the head of the Cabinet. While not entirely fixing the flaws in the design, the new situation - with the strongest political figure heading the executive branch - will set up the preconditions for more effective performance from the government, which is still battling to recover from the administration reforms of 2004.
Many commentators have already reproached Putin for agreeing to take a job that is "beneath him" - assuming responsibility for road-building, social services, inflation, and many other policy problems that could cost him his popularity. In my view, however, he ought to be thanked rather than reproached. Putin will make a good prime minister.
How stable would this new polycentric system of governance be? How long would Medvedev remain president, and Putin prime minister? What if they quarrel?
Of course, the whole construct can only be stable if the two key actors are in agreement; and there are sure to be plenty of opponents and allies trying to stir up trouble between Putin and Medvedev. But the first point we should note is that Putin and Medvedev have worked together for over 17 years, and no serious conflicts between them have ever been recorded. Besides, Putin has never made a mistake in his appointment decisions, with regard to the loyalty of the people he promotes. In the Yeltsin era, dismissed officials often took revenge by publishing their memoirs and "telling all" about their ex-boss. In the Putin era, not a single person has done so. Mikhail Kasyanov, former prime minister and now an opposition critic of the authorities, was inherited from Yeltsin, not appointed by Putin. I'm sure that when Putin made the most important appointment decision of his life - the choice of his successor - his calculations were all very thorough.
Medvedev will become the next president, and will hold that office for at least one full term. And Putin will remain prime minister throughout that time, with a good chance of becoming president again in 2012 or 2016 - or at any other presidential election over the next two decades.
