The outcome of Russia's presidential election Sunday was never in doubt. From the moment outgoing President Vladimir Putin anointed Dmitry Medvedev to be his successor, the only unknown was the size of Medvedev's victory. He got 70 percent of the vote in an election in which any meaningful opposition had been marginalized.
It's unlikely that Russia post-Putin will behave much differently come May when Medvedev is sworn in. That means the U.S. and the West will face more Russian push-back on the international front. As if to punctuate that, just hours after the polls closed, pro-government demonstrators in Moscow marched on the American embassy protesting U.S. support for an independent Kosovo and riot police broke up opposition demonstrations near Red Square. Then, Russia cut back on Ukraine's natural gas supplies. Did we mention that Medvedev is chairman of Russia's gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom? Russia insists the supply cutback is just business -- Ukraine owes $600 million in back bills. But the timing is anything but accidental.
Medvedev is young (42) and completely indebted to his mentor, Putin, who has nurtured Medvedev's Kremlin career. Putin also will serve as Medvedev's prime minister. Technically, that's a subservient spot to the president. But Kremlinologists expect Putin will remain the power behind the throne, at least initially. Medvedev has made it clear he may not need much prodding to let Putin continue to wield power. The president-elect has made some comments indicating that he favors the rule of law, more anti-corruption efforts and a less confrontational stance toward the West. But he has also vowed to continue Putin's policies, which have been wildly popular with many Russians.
That may surprise some Westerners, who see the eight years of Putin's rule as a disaster for democracy. The Kremlin discredited opposition leaders, marginalized -- or jailed -- independent voices and continued to amass economic and political power.
But many ordinary Russians recall the free-wheeling, chaotic Boris Yeltsin years as a disastrous experiment in democracy. Putin's two terms as president have given them a chance to build, and live, middle-class lives. Russia is stable, is experiencing an oil-fueled economic boom and is resurgent on the world stage.
No wonder many Russians view more of the same as a pretty good deal and hope Medvedev's Russia will be much like Putin's Russia.
The challenge for the U.S. is to encourage the protege to explore those faint stirrings regarding the rule of law. Find common ground with this new, young president where possible for the mutual benefit of Russians, Americans and the world.
The West has to find common ground with the new president of Russia
March 11, 2008
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