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::Geopolitics

Russia, Help Bush, Please

Russia, Help Bush, Please
March 22, 2008
Edward LOZANSKY, President, American University in Moscow

The recent Moscow trip of the two key figures in the Bush cabinet, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and State Secretary Condoleezza Rice, was a dual-purpose affair.

First, Gates and Rice made yet another attempt at softening Russia’s tough stance on further NATO expansion and elements of the NMD systems in Eastern Europe. Second, they came looking for some even modest success story that could contribute to the legacy of their Boss who is getting ready to exit the White House in 10 months.

Given George Bush’s remarkably low popularity ratings hovering around 30 percent, the appalling situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, the financial crisis, and pretty dubious image of the United States in the world, a radiant picture of Bush’s legacy is hardly plausible. So it is extremely important for him to show a thing or two to climb at least a few points higher, to move away from the rock-bottom rating among all U.S. presidents where he is solidly stuck at present.

Obviously, Moscow with its growing clout in world politics is just the place to tackle these matters, the more so that certain United States’ key allies take Russia’s position into account. Take, for example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel who recently sent a clear signal that any talk of Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO was premature. The public in Poland and Czechoslovakia is not exactly thrilled with the idea of having missile-defense units on their doorstep. Add to this NATO’s failure to take the Afghanistan situation in hand and the growing contradictions among the alliance members over what part they are to play in that country, and you will easily see that Washington, and George Bush himself, are in for difficult times. So Bush’s legacy looks distinctly lackluster.

The Washington Post , which currently leads the field in the anti-Russia rhetoric throughout the world and which usually represents Democratic Party interests, decided, for reasons better known to itself, to “help” Republican Bush -- by suggesting a way of improving his legacy a bit. It turns out that Bush’s best bet would be to secure Ukraine’s admission to NATO.

It would seem that the incumbent president will hardly be able to accomplish this feat, but this is by the by. A closer look at the Bush legacy will show that its chief constituent was the idea of spreading democracy worldwide. Whatever one may think of the theory as such, Bush, being a deeply religious man, genuinely believes that democracy can be an answer to all, or at least most of the world’s problems. Now, should Bush press for Ukraine’s accession to NATO at any cost, this will reduce to naught what is arguably his only pivotal concept. What sort of triumph of democracy can that be if the majority of Ukrainians are dead set against it?

Strange as it may seem, but Russia is the country that can help Bush in his predicament, and not as an act of charity at all. By throwing Bush a lifebelt, Russia will also tackle some of its own military-strategic problems, and signally improve its relations with the United States and NATO, simultaneously bettering its image in the West.

I am talking here about Russia’s constructive help to America and NATO in Afghanistan. Naturally, this is not about a direct involvement of the Russian army, but about making available the nearby military bases, transit transport routes, aircraft, helicopter and truck leasing, and general logistics. Clearly, there should also be a broad exchange of intelligence data and close cooperation between security services, including departments dealing with the traffic of narcotics. At present Russia and NATO are negotiating these issues, and it is vital that their talks prove fruitful.

It is a well-known fact that U.S. - Russian relations peaked in the fall of 2001, after Putin’s famous phone call to Bush with an offer to join the anti-terrorist coalition. At the time the entire official Washington eagerly praised Russia and Putin, and the anti-Russia lobby receded far into the shadows. So why not try and repeat that achievement, especially since it is about mutually beneficial cooperation in fighting a common enemy?

Progress in Afghanistan is badly needed for US, Europe and the whole civilized world. Russia ’s help to NATO with this problem is a win – win situation.  

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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