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A Russia-US experts dialogue starting in Washington

A Russia-US experts dialogue starting in Washington
May 20, 2008
Edward LOZANSKY, President, American University in Moscow
The three presumed U.S. presidential candidates rarely mention Russia. When they do, their remarks are critical - possibly because they are hoping to attract a few more votes from the numerous and well-organized ethnic communities of Ukraine, the Baltic states and East European countries.

Still, Senator John McCain stands alone. McCain, the Republican hopeful with a good shot of winning the election, has practically included Russia in a new axis of evil, along with North Korea, China and Iran. McCain's advisers are openly lambasting President George W. Bush for being too chummy with President Vladimir Putin and promise that Moscow will be treated a lot more harshly in a McCain presidency.

I am not sure if the statements from McCain and his camp are making the Kremlin nervous, but they are causing considerable concern among U.S. foreign policy experts. Recently, several mainstream news organizations, including Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune, published articles fiercely critical of McCain's rhetoric, which, they say, might provoke further complications in the world arena at a time when the United States is already mired in problems in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and even staunch ally Pakistan, where al-Qaida has a firm presence.

The foreign policy experts say a proposal by McCain to kick Russia out of the Group of Eight industrialized countries will never happen, because other G8 members would oppose such an expulsion. Stephen Cohen, a leading Russia scholar, said the McCain camp's rhetoric is pushing the world into a new Cold War. Newsweek went even further, branding McCain's ideas "schizophrenic."

I have assumed a more moderate attitude regarding what should be Washington's official attitude toward Russia. As it happens the annual World Russian Forum opens Monday on the premises of the U.S. Senate. The Forum agenda features over 30 top American and Russian experts who will discuss the current status of U.S. – Russian relations and present their proposals for mutually beneficial cooperation. We invited McCain to explain his stance and possibly engage in a debate with such prominent experts like Thomas Graham, former director of the National Security Council's Russia Department, and now with the Kissinger Group, Professor Robert Legvold of Columbia University, Andrew Kuchins of the Center for Strategic and International Studies as well as General Vladimir Dvorkin of the International Economics and International Relations Institute and Andranik Migranyan of the newly formed think tank the Institute of Democracy and cooperation, which is the first attempt by the Kremlin to have its own NGO in Washington.

I cannot speak for the other panelists, but personally I would like to ask the senator how U.S. security would benefit from Russia's expulsion from the G8. Also, I would like to ask McCain about an idea of his to form a league of democracies that would exclude Russia and China. Don't we need the Russians and the Chinese to cooperate on nuclear nonproliferation and a climate change treaty? Sidelining them with the creation of this new body would do nothing to smooth over cooperation in other areas. Moreover, how would Washington's Middle East allies like Egypt, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia react to such a grouping?

Some of the forum participants are also interested in McCain’s and other experts opinion about the expansion of U.S. – NATO – Russia cooperation in Afghanistan. Situation in this country is deteriorating and everyone admits that Taliban forces are getting stronger and better organized. The same is said about al-Qaida in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and some other parts of the wolrd. I’d go even further and suggest that we invite not only Russia but Shanghais Cooperation Organization to join in this battle since it looks like in this particular case the interests of the NATO and SCO coincide. Perhaps this idea is too radical but at least I am sure it is worth discussing.

McCain also recently suggested that the United States should follow the French example of generating 80 percent of France's electricity with nuclear power. However, some experts say that to satisfy McCain's desire to be like the French would require the construction of more than 700 huge nuclear power plants by 2050 - or more than one plant per month. Keeping in mind the fact that the Bush administration last month signed a deal permitting reactor fuel to come from Russia, where would the United States get all the uranium required to fuel 700 nuclear power plants if its next president bashed Russia day and night? Unfortunately, judging from the initial reaction from some of the key Members of Congress it looks like this treaty will not be ratified which I think would be a great mistake.

To be fair to McCain other two candidates Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did not provide any positive agenda either except of pledging to be tougher with Russia than Bush and endorsing further NATO expansion by accepting Ukraine and Georgia in its body. And, of course, all three senators promised not to only to continue but expand “democracy promotion” policy, a policy which the overwhelming majority of Russians see as the thinly veiled smoke screen to strengthen U.S. position in the world at the expense of Russia.

At a recent celebration in honor of former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, speaker after speaker stood up to say that none of the major security problems faced by the United States and the rest of the world could have been solved without cooperation from Russia. Even Brzezinski himself, who considers Russia to be little more than an evil genius, echoed this sentiment. Does McCain believe that all of them are wrong?

We may never know. So far neither McCain nor his top foreign policy advisor Randy Scheuneman neither confirmed or declined our invitation to speak at the forum, even though the meeting hall is right next door to his office in the Hart Senate Office Building.

However, the podium for them is open at any time during this Monday, May 19, 2008.


Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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