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::Geopolitics

Why does Washington keep courting authoritarian Central Asian regimes?

Why does Washington keep courting authoritarian  Central Asian regimes?
May 30, 2008
Arkady DUBNOV, analyst, Vremya Novostei newspaper

The fifth constitutional reform in Turkmenistan will be carried out under the American patronage. The news was proclaimed
yesterday after a meeting between President Gurbankuly
Berdymuhammedov and US State Undersecretary for Central Asia Richard Boucher. (Boucher had attended late President Saparmurat Niyazov's funeral in December 2006 and Berdymuhammedov's inauguration in February 2007.)

The US diplomat expressed willingness and readiness of his country to "aid the reforms launched in Turkmenistan, including the constitutional and legal ones that will make democratic changes irreversible." Boucher flew to Ashkhabad several days after announcement of the plans of political reforms charted by the Turkmen leadership. Official Ashkhabad intends to deprive  the Khalk Maslakhaty or People's Council of its guiding role and transfer its functions to the Majlis (national parliament). It also intends to extend presidency from five to seven years, reorganize the judicial system and prosecutor's office.

As for the "democratic changes" whose "irreversibility" Washington is ready to back, Berdymuhammedov began them with dismantlement of the power vertical constructed by his predecessor the Turkmenbashi. West Europe welcomes this trend too, clearly trying to use Ashkhabad's democratic rhetorics to its own advantage. The EU and Turkmenistan signed an energy memorandum the other day, a document that offers substantial preferences to what European energy companies hope to settle in this Central Asian country.

Turkmen society itself pins its hopes for democratic changes on the new political leadership. On the other hand, official Ashkhabad remains suspiciously silent on the lot of dozens political prisoners.

US visitors in the meantime are always discreet. Even though these delicate issues are discussed with the Turkmen leadership, Western diplomats never bring them up in public. Whether or not humanitarian problems were discussed at Berdymuhammedov's meeting with Boucher this time remains unknown. What Boucher did elaborate on after the meeting was the discourse over "problems of security, including energy security." The diplomat made an emphasis on the recent talks between Turkmen and Azerbaijani presidents in Baku. Official Washington is convinced that it is the American efforts that enabled the two countries to restore the bilateral relations severed in the Turkmenbashi's days. Washington and Brussels
(European Union) view this restoration as a step closer to realization of their pet project of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline bypassing Russia.

Boucher will depart Ashkhabad for Tashkent where he is scheduled to continue their "critical dialogue" with President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. The West entertains a futile hope that all of that will encourage authoritarian Central Asian regimes to turn democratic.

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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