The war in South Ossetia enlivened discussions in Russia over
foreign political and military strategic issues.
The conclusion is fairly simple: Russia is grossly disappointed because the West it had regarded as a partner practically unanimously backed the aggressor that wouldn't hesitate to murder noncombatants by the hundred. President Dmitry Medvedev told the Valdai Discussion Club that the war had
disabused him (and many others) of illusions. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin condemned the propagandistic machine of the West and announced that improvement of relations was something the Western community should aspire to now.
It does not mean that Russia wants a confrontation. What Russia has suggested still stands and that means establishment of a comprehensive framework of European security, combination of efforts to update the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe, cooperation in the war on proliferation and terrorism, Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, and so on. The new reality, however, means that the West cannot automatically count on Russia's readiness to be partners with it anymore. There will be no partnership if the West continues to blithely neglect and never even acknowledge vital interests of Russia. Unfortunately, countries of the West (and first and foremost the United States) keep promoting a policy with regard to Moscow that bears a strong resemblance to the old strategy of containment. Moreover, the worst threat to Russian security in decades - adoption of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO - is once again on the agenda. Encountering these problems (menaces) in the western direction, Moscow can not help reacting there and elsewhere. It is compelled to reassert itself as a global player, one that is forced to revise all its geopolitical considerations and do so in a hurry.
So, what has August 8 resulted in? Military component of the Russian-Belarussian union was enlarged (and particularly its BM capacity). The CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization adopted 16 new agreements that transform it into a fully fledged military-political alliance. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization decided to expand. Previously somewhat skeptical with regard to aspirations of India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia to join this structure, the Kremlin may turn out to be more sympathetic now.
Moscow pledged to continue rapprochement with the Moslem world. Turkey, the only NATO member that backed Russia, reintroduced the idea of a stability pact for the southern part of the Caucasus. One of the guarantors of regional parity, Iran immediately expressed interest in the suggested pact.
Russia returned to the Western Hemisphere for the first time in its post-Soviet history. Two TU-160 bombers in Venezuela and the forthcoming naval maneuvers in Venezuelan territorial waters should serve as a warning. The US Navy carrying guided missiles makes port calls to Batumi and Sevastopol. Do the Americans really expect Russia to keep swallowing bitter pills? (It was a country of the American continent, namely Nicaragua, that chose to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia too.)
Russia did not need this war - or any other. It rose to the challenge and defeated the adversary. As a result, for the first time in years, Russia found itself - practically against its will - at the table where big-time geopolitical games are played. Until then, nobody really cared about Russia or what it thought on a given issue. The United States, NATO, and European Union played the global game all by themselves, deigning afterwards to notify Moscow of the decisions they had made and completely dismissing Moscow's concerns as being of no account. No more. Russia is at the table now, and that precludes efforts to force peaceful settlement terms on it in the name of the self-proclaimed "international community". That Moscow is a bona fide participant now is something Nicolas Sarkozy already understands which is more that could be said for the United States whose officials discuss the Georgian issue with just about everyone from Azerbaijan to Italy but with Russia.
Moscow seems to be back in the game it was ousted from when the Soviet Union disintegrated.




