As Bush's eight-year presidency is winding up – or down – his legacy looks pretty grim. The United States is overextended militarily, economically, diplomatically, and, perhaps most critically, financially, as the events of the past two weeks have shown all too clearly.
America’s image in the world is far from attractive, and ironically, even countries like Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, where the U.S. made huge investments and where thousands of American soldiers have died, are in no rush to express their gratitude to the investor. Moreover, some of their statements are pretty embarrassing for the White House.
For example, Pakistan’s new President Asif Ali Zardari has turned down FBI’s offer to help in uncovering the plot that destroyed the Marriott Hotel and warned that Pakistan would resist American military incursions. “We will not tolerate the violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity by any power in the name of combating terrorism,” Zardari said – to the legislators’ loud cheers.
Afghanistan’s President Karzai also often criticizes U.S. military operations in his country and makes overtures to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization dominated by China and Russia. Even in Iraq Prime Minister al-Maliki, a Shiite, is showing signs of breaking free from the U.S. stranglehold and moving closer to coreligionist Iran.
However, nowhere are the signs of U.S. foreign policy failures more visible than on the Russian front. Instead of making every effort to bring Russia closer to the West, Washington chose the strategy of encircling it with the new NATO members and weakening its position on the energy market. Such a policy is driving Russia into the camp hostile to America at a time when we badly need its cooperation on a wide range of issues, most importantly on Iran.
The foreign policy mess is enough to make one wonder if the heads of the Pentagon and the State Department had not mixed up their briefs. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, whose job apparently is to wield the big stick, sounds more conciliatory than the State Department head. Gates cautions U.S. allies against hasty punitive actions against Russia and offers a nice humorous touch as he notes that his and Condy’s PhD in Russian Studies are not doing America any good.
Conversely Rice, whose position requires, if not carrot waving then at least some diplomatic skills, is resorting to rhetoric so harsh as to go far beyond what is acceptable in diplomacy. Curiously, it sounds pretty pathetic at that.
Rice’s message that the West must stand up to “bullying by Moscow, which is becoming increasingly authoritarian and aggressive,” sounds rather hollow as Europe is preparing for a new round of talks on strategic partnership with Russia. But the most laughable, at least to my taste, was her assertion that the notion of “spheres of influence” in world affairs was obsolete. Tell it to Chili, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Panama, Haiti, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Cuba… shall we continue?
Interestingly, no one in Washington talks these days about democracy advancement anymore. Vice President Cheney is ready to praise any dictator or autocrat who happens to rule in the Caspian region as long as they agree to help build new oil pipelines that bypass Russia.
Overall, it looks like George Bush and his team are in a state of denial about Russia’s resurgence and do not want to accept the reality that Washington can no longer ignore Russia’s basic interests.
Of course, all these personages will soon recede into history. What really matters is the policies of the future White House master. Frankly, so far we have not had too many encouraging signals either from Obama or, even less, from McCain. Judging from the array of foreign policy advisors in both camps it would be naпve to expect something breathtaking or even sensible.
The United States’ brief unipolar domination of the world is a thing of the past. Russian and new American leaders need to talk on a broad cooperation agenda. A good starting point will be the acceptance of reality about the nonreversible independence of Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This can be followed by a freeze on NATO expansion in exchange for Russia substantially increasing its assistance to U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan and preventing Iran going nuclear. Russia could also help bring the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into this equation, for here we have a clear case where the interests of West and East coincide.
