Less than two weeks before the presidential elections all indicators are pointing to a landslide, or a near-landslide victory by Obama. There is always a chance for last minute surprises, but miracles are rare things. I think the main reason for McCain’s most likely defeat is this: too many influential groups within his own Republican party never regarded him as the best choice available.
We are not talking here only about hard-core conservatives, far right and Christian right. Even moderates, such as the hugely admired former Secretary of State Gen. Collin Powell, have turned away from McCain. Gen. Powell said he was dismayed by the tenor of McCain’s campaign and not quite thrilled by his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin for running mate – and who could blame the general but the most ardent Sarah Barracuda fans?
Powell’s endorsement of Obama offered great relief to me personally since I always considered myself to be a loyal Republican who not only always voted for GOP candidates but even formed the “Russians for Reagan”, and Russians for the two Bushes and Dole groups. I was definitely not going to put together a similar group for McCain since I believe that his misguided rhetoric on Russia is harmful to U.S. interests and dangerous to the world. Being in the same company as Gen. Powell definitely eases the pricks of my Republican conscience
As for Obama, I am sure his election will be most welcome in Europe and the rest of the world and will definitely help improve relations with our allies and America’s image in general. However, when it comes to U.S. – Russia relations one should not expect any drastic changes for the better unless Obama thoroughly overhauls his foreign policy team. The current line of his official and self-proclaimed advisors on Russia is as bad as McCain’s; in some respects, even worse.
His Vice-President Joe Biden is also not much better on Russia than Sarah Palin. Besides lobbying in the middle of a huge financial crisis for providing one billion dollars to his good friend President Saakashvili of Georgia, Biden is known for blocking the lifting of the Jackson-Vanik amendment unless Moscow guarantees large purchases of American chicken meat. I have always naively assumed that the Jackson – Vanik amendment to a 1974 trade law was about free emigration from what then was the Soviet Union. Now, the evil empire has been gone for 17 years and Russia freely permits emigration to whosoever asks for it without any restrictions – but the Jackson—Vanik amendment lives on. I wonder what Henry Scoop Jackson and Charles Vanik, who co-authored that amendment, would have to say about this chicken-meat approach to human rights issues. This outdated obstacle to trade engenders resentment in Russia, blocks its admission to WTO, and harms U.S. economic and diplomatic ties with that country.
Before making any long-term projections, we will have to see who Obama’s choice will be for Secretary of State and for National Security Advisor. There is a long list of knowledgeable and respected professionals who can do an excellent job. That list would include Gen. Collin Powell, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow and now Undersecretary of State William Burns, Head of the Russian and Eurasian Programs at CSIS Andrew Kuchins, Director of the Carnegie office in Moscow Rose Gottemoeller, and quite a few others. I’d also advise Obama to create an informal Kitchen Cabinet, similar to Ronald Reagan’s, with people of the types like James Baker, Henry Kissinger, Sam Nunn, Chuck Hagel, just to name a few.
Making up such lists is quite an enjoyable occupation, but somehow I am not too sanguine about Obama’s future selections. As for the present, he is clearly surrounded by people who may yet make the Kremlin feel nostalgic for the good old days of the Bush administration.
