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Nuclear arms treaty ends but Russia and US work to agree new deal

Nuclear arms treaty ends but Russia and US work to agree new deal
December 8, 2009
Tony HALPIN, political analyst, The Times

It was supposed to be the centrepiece of President Obama’s attempt to reset relations between the US and Russia. Instead, an agreement to cut nuclear weapon arsenals was overshadowed by a scramble to prevent the collapse of an existing arms treaty.

Late-night bargaining in Geneva between US and Russian negotiators failed to produce an agreement to replace the landmark 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start), which expired today. Its demise meant the collapse of the system for monitoring the two largest nuclear stockpiles in the world.

As hopes for a breakthrough faded Mr Obama and President Medvedev rushed out declarations that they would remain bound by the the treaty until they agreed on its replacement.

In a joint statement released by the Kremlin they said that Russia and the US would continue to work “in the spirit” of the treaty. The Kremlin said that Mr Medvedev and Mr Obama had spoken by telephone about the state of the negotiations, adding that they expected the draft treaty to be ready soon.

The failure to meet the deadline apparently spoilt plans for a signing ceremony during Mr Obama’s visit to Finland next week to receive his Nobel Peace Prize in Helsinki.

One idea had been for the new treaty to be signed in Reykjavik, where the US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had come close to a deal to abolish nuclear weapons in 1986. Mr Obama has declared his commitment in seeking a nuclear weapons-free world.

Twenty American inspectors left the main ballistic missile factory yesterday at Votkinsk, which makes the Topol-M and SS25 intercontinental rockets, ending a permanent presence established by the treaty. It was unclear last night whether they would return under the temporary agreement when it emerged that their operations were a stumbling block in talks to reduce stockpiles of missiles.

Russia is insisting on an end to the US presence at Votkinsk, 600 miles (960km) east of Moscow, arguing that its inspectors withdrew from American missile sites in 2001. One source close to the talks told the Ria Novosti news agency: “The strong position of the Russian delegation is that the unilateral US military inspection leaves Votkinsk.”

Mr Obama and Mr Medvedev agreed at their Reset Summit in Moscow in July to reduce the number of warheads in each country to between 1,500 and 1,675 within seven years of a new treaty. They pledged to reduce the number of long-range missiles to between 500 and 1,100 each.

The deal was, however, more modest an advance than claimed because, under the 2002 Moscow Treaty signed by President Bush and Vladimir Putin, the sides were already committed to reducing nuclear stockpiles to between 2,200 and 1,700 by 2012. The US has 2,200 operational warheads and Russia has 2,790, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The decision by Mr Obama to abandon plans for a missile-defence shield in Eastern Europe in September raised hopes of a swift conclusion to the negotiations over the renewal of the treaty because the Kremlin had said that the shield would block any agreement. Expectations faded as the deadline approached and Ian Kelly, the State Department spokesman, told journalists this week that the two sides were now planning for a draft treaty by the end of December.

Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said that the negotiating teams would try to make an agreement in the next 24 hours but added: “I think it’s unlikely that in that 24 hours all the issues that remain outstanding are resolved.”

The Start agreement was signed by the first President Bush and Mr Gorbachev before the Soviet Union collapsed. It committed the sides to the biggest nuclear arms cuts in history, slashing stockpiles from their Cold War peak of about 30,000 missiles to no more than 6,000, as well as a system of verification to build confidence between the countries.

Strategic stocks

2,668 Russia

2,126 United States

300 France

180 China

160 United Kingdom

80 Israel

60 Pakistan

60 India

Fewer than 10 North Korea

(All figures are estimated)

Source: Federation of American Scientists

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6945316.ece

Editorial
As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. Russia has several levers, including its ability to cut off supply lines to the NATO-led war effort in Afghanistan, to use in the standoff over BMD, but the United States could retaliate by supporting the current protests in Russia. Moscow is willing to escalate tensions with Washington but will not push the crisis to the point where relations could formally break.
Keyur Patel
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Russia released a preliminary estimate for 2011 GDP growth on Tuesday - and at 4.3 per cent, it looks pretty healthy. The figure crept ahead of analyst expectations, buoyed by a strong recovery in consumer demand over the year, while 2010 growth was revised upwards, also to 4.3 per cent. Renaissance Capital was cautiously bullish, calling the forecast 'reason for a (modest) celebration'.
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