It’s too early, and there have been too many disappointments in the past, to call it a Kumbaya moment. But American relations with Russia are in the midst of an interesting warming trend.
You don’t have to take the word of somebody in Washington for that. A better source, perhaps, is Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
In a little-noticed speech to Russian ambassadors last week, Mr. Medvedev said a recent visit he made to the U.S. showed the possibilities for «a positive agenda in our relations with the United States» and the «potential of our future cooperation.»
He talked of a «paradigm shift» under way in Russian relations with the U.S. that could help the two nations reach common goals. And he spoke explicitly of Russia’s need for "modernization alliances«—the kind that can update Russia’s economy—with both Western Europe and the U.S.
Perhaps of more immediate importance, Mr. Medvedev bluntly called out Iran for moving toward a nuclear-weapons capability, made clear that the Kremlin views that advance dimly and said it reflects a «systemic» failure in the international effort to stop the spread of nuclear arms.
All told, he described a relationship on the mend, just two years after Moscow’s military incursion into Georgia sent it into a tailspin. (The world being what it is today, you can read an English-language version of the speech on the Kremlin’s website at http://www.eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/610.)
How seriously can one take the warm and fuzzy words? There’s no denying continuing tensions over Georgia, as well as other areas of friction. Indeed, it’s significant that Mr. Medvedev didn’t do that. He acknowledged that he has limited faith in economic sanctions against Iran, and he nodded to continuing disagreements with the U.S. on missile-defense systems. «He didn’t brush past disagreements,» says one senior U.S. official, who says that is a sign of a maturing relationship.
Moreover, the last two decades illustrate the need to view signs of progress on the Russian front skeptically. The final leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, showed he could change history, but was unable to manage it. Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin seemed a true democrat at heart, but while the spirit was willing, the flesh was weak. Former President George W. Bush looked the previous Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in the eye and thought he saw a trustworthy partner, but that partner turned out to be as much autocrat as democrat.
And Mr. Putin is still around as prime minister, a post from which he is busy (perhaps with Mr. Medvedev’s support) suppressing political opposition, cheering on a crackdown on Muslim activists in Chechnya and expanding the power of Russian intelligence services. American officials are divided on whether Mr. Putin shares Mr. Medvedev’s view of Russian relations with the West or whether it’s simply impossible to know for sure.
With all those caveats, the broadly cooperative relationship Mr. Medvedev described still is important in the short run for the foreign policy of President Barack Obama, who has made it a personal mission to build a constructive relationship with his Russian counterpart. Without some meeting of minds with Russia, and China, dealing with the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea will be immeasurably more difficult, and the odds of success even longer than they are now.
The most significant part of Mr. Medvedev’s speech is the broader rationale he offers for a new approach. He describes a foreign policy that needs to serve Russia’s chief domestic goal of a «modernization» of its economy: «We believe that with the support of our government and in cooperation with foreign partners, Russian entrepreneurs, scientists, engineers will turn our economy into one of the driving forces of global development.»
No coincidence, then, that when Mr. Medvedev visited the U.S. last month, he traveled not only to Washington but to Silicon Valley as well.
The Medvedev vision of a better relationship with the U.S. just passed one big test, when the two countries quickly and adroitly disposed of a spy scandal. More tests lie ahead.
Will Russia honor the spirit of sanctions against Iran, or undermine them with sales of fuel and military equipment to Tehran? Russia demanded loopholes in a United Nations sanctions resolution so that it could continue some military sales, and, in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Medvedev complained that the U.S. is going beyond the letter of the sanctions resolution.
On the U.S. side, will the Senate ratify this year a new strategic-arms agreement Mr. Obama worked with Mr. Medvedev to conclude? The ratification debate is about to begin. If the treaty languishes, it’s doubtful that the Russian president will repeat the speech he delivered last week.
