The president of Russia started the Great Election Season with a big surprise: replacing the government and introducing the Russian voters to a new face -- Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov. The operation to "pull out of his sleeve" a candidate hitherto unknown by anyone and the ease and elegance of putting him into the premiership, just like a cover operation, have been conducted brilliantly. After President Putin with his unexpected appointments so elegantly put the community of analysts who were considered the closest to the administration and so the most informed in an awkward position, to put it mildly; everyone in one voice started saying that predicting the development of the political situation in our country is completely impossible. After all, it does not matter what you might guess the president's future steps to be. If such an assessment is correct, it is only in part. Vladimir Putin really does know how and loves to surprise people, which was in fact demonstrated at the United Russia congress.

U.S. President George W. Bush gave a lengthy answer to the question concerning American-Russian relations in an interview with German TV networks. "I do not want any escalation of tension [in the relations] with Russia," Bush said. "The U.S. does not perceive Russia as a threat". Nevertheless, Bush acknowledged the existence of issues over which Washington and Moscow disagree.

The embattled President of Georgia stunned his opponents yesterday by calling a snap election a day after he imposed emergency rule in a crackdown on anti-government protests. Mikhail Saakashvili declared that he would run in new presidential elections on January 5 “to receive the trust of the people”. Elections were not due until next November but the President threw down the gauntlet to his opponents in a dramatic televised address, saying: “You wanted elections early. Have them even earlier.”

Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov said yesterday that all Duma factions intend to support the CFE Treaty moratorium. In effect, this vote in the Duma won't have any legal consequences, since the CFE Treaty's wording on withdrawal procedures is somewhat vague. However, international law specialists agree that Moscow can withdraw from the CFE Treaty if it gives its partners 150 days' notice. Those 150 days (since President Putin's decree was issued) expire in a month's time, on December 12, so the Duma's vote on the
CFE Treaty bill will be Russia's final warning to the West - and a reminder that Moscow isn't joking.

I recently saw the superb new Russian movie "12," a remake of the classic American drama "Twelve Angry Men." It is fitting that a great Russian director, Nikita Mikhalkov, should make a new, Russian version of this American movie, for 12 reminds us that the U.S. and Russia share great legal, as well as cinematic, traditions. Like its predecessor, 12 is the story of a jury presented with what appears to be a simple murder case. At the beginning of their deliberations, all but one of the 12 jurors are ready to convict without even considering the evidence. However, one holdout insists that they review the evidence carefully and, as they do so, painstakingly, they come to see that the accused is really innocent and save him from a monstrous injustice. The only major difference between 12 and its American predecessor is that this time the action takes place in contemporary Russia, rather than 1950's America.

Oil prices have been levitating since President Bush used the words "Iran" and "World War III" in the same sentence. But geopolitical jitters aren't the only reason oil has risen by more than $30 a barrel in the last year -- and $10 in the last month alone. Prices had been approaching $90 even before Bush's bluster, Turkey's massing of troops on the Iraq border and the announcement of new U.S. sanctions on Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Demand for oil is robust; supplies are not. So economists cannot calculate exactly how much of the price run-up can be blamed on the "geopolitical premium" that oil traders add to every barrel when they fear war or other instability that would disrupt supplies.

When Americans start teaching democracy to us, it only irritates the majority of Russian citizens. I doubt that US advice and suggestions can improve the state of democracy in Russia. Moreover, Washington’s criticism is an extra argument for the Russian authorities to accuse the U.S. of interfering in Russia’s domestic affairs and to crack down, saying “keep your hands off sovereign democracy”. Although US criticism of Russian reality often is superficial, imprecise or one-sided, it does not mean there are almost no faults with democracy in Russia. These faults are graver than the Kremlin imagines them in its on-going dispute with the West concerning where Russia is headed.

Faced with threats from al Qaeda and Iran and increasing instability in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States does not need new enemies. Yet its relationship with Russia is worsening by the day. The rhetoric on both sides is heating up, security agreements are in jeopardy, and Washington and Moscow increasingly look at each other through the old Cold War prism. Although Russia's newfound assertiveness and heavy-handed conduct at home and abroad have been the major causes of mutual disillusionment, the United States bears considerable responsibility for the slow disintegration of the relationship as well. Moscow's maladies, mistakes, and misdeeds are not an alibi for U.S. policymakers, who made fundamental errors in managing Russia's transition from an expansionist communist empire to a more traditional great power.

The United States is prepared to offer concessions to Russia over the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty to try to persuade Moscow to soften its positions on Kosovo and Iran, diplomats said Monday. The concessions are part of a complex package Washington is pursuing as it tries to overcome Russian opposition to independence for the Serbian province of Kosovo and to gain support for new sanctions against Tehran that the Bush administration announced last week. With time running out for a deal on Kosovo - the deadline for an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians expires on Dec. 10 - and with the United States trying to win support for further sanctions against Iran, the administration is pressing to bring Russia on board.

The Russian media pinned great hopes on the 20th Russia-EU summit, held in Mafra, Portugal, on October 26, during the 10th anniversary of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA). It was reported that bilateral trade almost doubled in the past four years, reaching $230 billion. Thanks to the rapid growth of global commodities prices and a dramatic fall of the US dollar, Russia has become the European Union's third largest trade partner. The share of the EU in foreign direct investment in the Russian economy reached 75%.