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American-Russian relations: from confrontation to alliance
Last updated: 8 September 2010

::Geopolitics

The US and European members of the UN Security Council were last night set to call for a clear path towards the independence of Kosovo, but aimed to overcome Russian objections by offering a four-month delay to allow a final round of talks. In a draft resolution, likely to be formally introduced to the council today, they suggest a 120-day "sunrise" clause, giving all parties one last chance to reach agreement on the future of the breakaway Serbian province.


Niall FERGUSON
political analyst, "Los Angeles Times"
DIVIDE AND RULE was an old maxim of Britain's empire. In the Middle East today, there's certainly no shortage of division. But who is ruling as a result?
Any lingering hopes of a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians evaporated last week as the Islamist extremists of Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip.

At a ritzy business summit in St Petersburg - the biggest since communism collapsed - the Russian President dismissed the Western-dominated multilateral bodies, set up 50 years ago, as "archaic, awkward and undemocratic". By urging developing countries to consider new forums for economic cooperation - independent of America, the EU and Japan - Putin tapped into deep seams of resentment, built up over generations, in capital cities from Bogota to Beijing.


When President Bush declared last week that political openness naturally accompanied economic openness, his counterparts in Beijing and Moscow were not the only ones to object. Liberal and conservative intellectuals, even once ardent supporters, have backed away from the century-old theory that democracy and capitalism, like Paris Hilton and paparazzi, need each other to survive.

Sergei KARAGANOV
head of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council of Russia
The G8 summit in Heiligendamm has a great achievement to its credit - a tentative agreement on a 50% reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases by 2050. This is a major success on the part of responsible individuals who are urging the political classes of their countries to rise above minor disputes and tactical power games in the name of meeting the major challenges of today and tomorrow. They urged the United States to take a new look at the situation. It had been opposed to any commitments on greenhouse emissions, but its position has now mellowed. The Americans will still have to be persuaded to put the issue on the UN agenda. Washington is still against a stronger UN that limits its freedom of action, but some progress has been made. Having backed the positions of the majority, Russia has kept its freedom of maneuver by placing itself between the obstinate Americans and the radical Europeans, which is a good thing.

Pyotr GONCHAROV
analyst, RIA Novosti
President Vladimir Putin's proposal to use the Gabala radar in Azerbaijan in a joint antiballistic missile (ABM) system with the United States may affect the debate about missile defense in Europe. The Gabala radar station, which Russia leases from Azerbaijan, is unique - it covers all directions from which missiles could potentially strike Europe, registering the launch seconds after a missile takes off, following its flight path and feeding the information needed to intercept it at the optimal point. However, there is more to the story than just practical considerations. Putin's proposal is changing the character of plans for an ABM system in Europe.

Niall FERGUSON
political analyst, "Los Angeles Times"
POOR ANGELA Merkel. The German chancellor was trying very hard to be the hostess with the mostest at the G-8 summit last week. The preferred topics of conversation could scarcely have been worthier (poverty in Africa, climate change). She thought her only worry was the usual rent-a-mob of anti-globalization protesters. Being of East German origin, she solved that problem by building a 7-mile-long wall around the conference site. The problem was that one of her invited guests tried to spoil the party by bringing up the embarrassing subject of nuclear missiles.

It turns out that President Putin did not come to Heiligendamm with a challenging debate arsenal like his Munich speech. On the contrary, he was the one who proposed a solution that might really interest Washington and relieve the tension in Russian-American relations. At their post-meeting press conference, the two presidents were smiling and even cheerful. The reason for their good mood became clear when Putin explained his proposal: Russia and the United States should both use a radar station in Azerbaijan, currently leased to Russia.

Pyotr ROMANOV
RIA Novosti political commentator
On his way to the G8 summit, during a stopover in the Czech Republic to wrap up negotiations on an American anti-missile radar there, U.S. President George W. Bush thanked the Czech authorities for their loyalty to democracy. The most surprising thing was that Bush seemed to be quite sincere, and the Czech authorities appeared to really believe they were democrats through and through. Meanwhile, though, there is some cause for doubt - the decision on deployment was made in the teeth of overwhelming opposition from the Czech people. In other words, democracy in the Czech Republic has failed to pass the test given to it by the American missile shield. Another reason why this is bad for the Czechs is that, having only recently gotten out from under the thumb of the Soviet Union and without having fully tasted independence, they have found themselves under heavy American pressure.

Casting Russia as the enemy suits everyone at this year’s summit. It distracts attention from President Bush’s contempt for Europeans on climate change and his geopolitical blunders. It helps Angela Merkel and Tony Blair to disguise the failure of their Atlanticist diplomacy while allowing Nicolas Sarkozy to sound tough, without being antiAmerican. It gives all the European leaders at the summit a chance to «show solidarity» with the EU’s newly admitted Eastern members without making any concessions on the discriminatory economic and labour policies that will keep these countries firmly in their place for decades ahead. And best of all, from every nation’s standpoint, the starring role of villain is one that President Putin himself craves.
Richard Boudreaux

When its Cold War spies got caught in the West, Moscow’s usual response was silence. The Kremlin refused with rare exceptions to acknowledge its undercover agents, and the policy of denial lingered long into the post-Soviet era.

But after the U.S. arrested 10 members of what it called a deep-cover Russian espionage ring, Moscow was quick to admit that at least some were Russian citizens—a shift that offers an intriguing subplot to the spy story itself.

The Russian Foreign Ministry repeated the statement Thursday, saying it was ready to provide consular assistance to any Russians in custody.

Moscow hasn’t specified how many of the 10 are Russians; two of those arrested, Anna Chapman and Mikhail Semenko, had not hidden that fact. The others, U.S. authorities allege, spent years operating under false names, blending into America and pretending not to be Russians.

Even so, Moscow’s relative openness about the suspects was a departure from its past standard of stonewalling about spies.

Britain and Russia  have been at odds since a former KGB spy died in London  last year, allegedly as the result of radioactive poisoning by a former colleague. The bad feelings have extended to business as well as politics. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France seems set on strengthening ties with Russia, unwilling to sacrifice the huge gains his country could make – particularly in energy – and is turning a blind eye to the problems across the English Channel and cozying up to Moscow. Other European nations are likely to follow suit.

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