The Commonwealth is entering a period of geopolitical struggle with NATO and the United States for control over the territory of the erstwhile Soviet Union and nearby countries. The Alliance mounted an energetic campaign to enlist the services of post- Soviet republics in performance of its own military-political missions in the region. Russia’s geopolitical interests are in danger. Outperformed at every turn, the international structures it established in the region (CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization or CSTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization) become virtual.
Exercise Peace Mission’2010 of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to be launched in Kazakhstan on September 10. There appear to be no particular reason to run the exercise save for the necessity to show that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is still there.
The exercise will involve 3,000 servicemen from China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Judging by what is known about its legend, units of CSTO regular armies practiced analogous missions on the same firing range in Kazakhstan a year ago, within the framework of exercise Cooperation’2009. According to Lieutenant General Oleg Latypov, the troops then were tasked to handle well-organized and -equipped gangs threatening national security of an unidentified country. Gunmen seized refineries, pipelines, etc. and CSTO armies gallantly demolished them. More or less the same developments occurred in Kyrgyzstan where gunmen and marauders destroyed industrial objects in southern provinces in the course of ethnic clashes between Kyrgyzes and Uzbeks this spring. The CSTO never came to Kyrgyzstan’s aid then even though its new leader Roza Otunbayeva was hollering for help and begging Moscow and the CSTO to intervene.
Steppe Eagle’2010 became the largest international exercise involving NATO countries (the United States and Great Britain) and Kazakhstan. Quite important from the standpoint of the countries fighting the Talibs in Afghanistan, the exercise ended in Kazakhstan last Sunday. Robert Simmons, NATO Secretary General’s Envoy for Central Asia and the Caucasus who was present at the exercise, proclaimed Kazbat ready for functioning within NATO contingents. Simmons added that participation of Kazakh servicemen in the Alliance’s operations in Afghanistan was a settled matter. «All necessary documents have been drawn,» he said. The Kazakh authorities remain non-committal for the time being because deployment of military contingents abroad is a matter for the national parliament. Appraising Steppe Eagle’2010, Kazakh Ground Forces Commander-in-Chief Saken Zhasuzakov did confirm readiness of his subordinates to function side by side with NATO units.
At first sight, there is nothing extraordinary about it since Azerbaijani, Armenian, and Georgian contingents are already in Afghanistan. Uzbek servicemen guard the area where a railroad between Hairaton and Mazar-e-Sharif is being built. It is common knowledge in the meantime that NATO would not acknowledge offers from the CSTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization to combine efforts in Afghanistan. Russia is about to make the decision concerning establishment of another military base in Kyrgyzstan whereas the Americans already claim to be ready to finance construction of a training center in Osh. It is known that Otunbayeva already approved the idea, informally for the time being. Washington pledged readiness to invest up to $10 million in development of a facility where Kyrgyz servicemen would practice counter-terrorism operations.
It is fair to add that the Americans build an analogous training center in Tajikistan nearby. Governments of Uzbekistan and Germany recently signed a new agreement regarding the use of Termez airfield by Bundeswehr. In short, Central Asian states do assist NATO to the best of their abilities. What about the CSTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization?
Fyodor Lukianov of Russia In Global Politics is of the opinion that activeness of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Central Asia is circuitously impaired by China. «China is adept at ducking responsibility. Its foreign policy is exceptionally pragmatic. Beijing never ventures into the areas wherever there are no direct threats to interests of China.» As for the CSTO, Lukianov said that Russia ought to be playing a more active role in this structure. «It hasn’t been though, as we’ve seen in Kyrgyzstan,» he shrugged. Lukianov said that promotion of geopolitical ambitions required assets and reserves Russia lacked.
Granted that these conclusions are correct, it is necessary to admit nevertheless that Russia itself made the CSTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization virtual — or rather permitted them to become virtual. Russia lacks clear and precisely geopolitical and military plans for the post-Soviet zone which is probably why the region so easily succumbs to the influence of others.
