On the 1st of October the UN Security Council is gathering to once again discuss the proposed sanctions on Iran. Most of the previous meetings regarding the issue of Iran’s nuclear program have been a complete failure, since Russia and China preferred to stick to diplomacy. This session of the UNSC, however, may have a less expected outcome.
Iran is in deep trouble. At least, if you were Iranian, you’d think so for sure. US troops are everywhere: to the East – in Afghanistan, and to the West – in Iraq. Chances are, Iran is the next target, and if you are all alone against a superpower, all you can hope for is a glorious defeat. That is – unless you come up with a third solution. And what else can guarantee your safety like nuclear potential – the ultima ratio regum of the modern age? At least, this is one way to put it. After all the discussions and investigations we still cannot be sure that Iran possesses or is in development of an atomic bomb. Although the persistence with which it tries to avoid IAEA inspections proves Iran is at least willing to sustain the world’s suspicions. Playing on the West’s fear of the unknown is an adequate move, especially if there’s no actual bomb development.
Yet, this perfectly logical policy (from an Iranian point of view, that is) can’t be tolerated by the Nuclear Club as it poses a threat to the whole Non-Proliferation system. This is where the Security Council comes into the game. Despite Russian and Chinese humanism or carelessness, Iran has recently been subject to UN sanctions thrice now. From 2006 through 2008 the country was banned from weapon and nuclear equipment trade and cut off from some of its foreign bank accounts. All following calls for heavier sanctions ended with nothing, though, as both the Peoples Republic of China and the Russian Federation have personal interests involved in Iran.
To Russia, Iran is a good trading partner, and when it comes to peaceful nuclear energy, which Iran claims is its only objective, the two countries are deeply interested in joint ventures in the industry. Voting against Iran will mean losing this, and although it’s not much, we shouldn’t forget that Russia is close enough to be targeted if the sides were switched. Here we’re talking not about the hypothetical nuclear threat, but the more practical Islamic terrorist threat, in which Iran is (allegedly) involved.
China, on the other hand, is out of reach physically, but its ties to Iran are stronger than blood. It’s oil that keeps them together, and pulling that “needle” out might literally cripple the Eastern giant. China is already buying 15% of its oil from Iran, and it will need more and more with the growth of its economy.
But here’s a twist: with Barack Obama’s denouncing of plans for missile interceptors in Eastern Europe, Russian leaders might (but not necessarily) feel obliged to do the US a favor in return. No one can be sure here, though, since both the White House’s promises and the Kremlin’s response were fuzzy: the former immediately announced plans for alternative missile defenses in the same area, while for the latter a certain controversy among the two leaders seemed to have surfaced regarding this issue.
However in all this uncertainty we can be sure about one thing: if Russia supports the sanctions (and chances are higher than ever this time), China will follow as it did three times before.
